France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.6% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Spain, as traders weigh recent form and squad depth across the expanded 48-team field. Spain’s long unbeaten streak in 90-minute matches and strong European Championship pedigree keep it tightly bunched at 16.8%, while England, Brazil, and Argentina sit just behind on the strength of established attacking talent and qualification results. Recent international friendlies have highlighted France’s attacking options and Spain’s possession control, yet injury concerns for key players like Lamine Yamal and ongoing squad finalization across contenders sustain the competitive balance. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities underscores how evenly matched the leading nations remain with one month until kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 18.6%
Spanien 16.8%
England 11.3%
Brasilien 9.2%
$1,009,070,132 Vol.
$1,009,070,132 Vol.
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
19%
Spanien
17%
England
11%
Brasilien
9%
Argentinien
9%
Portugal
8%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
2%
Japan
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Schweiz
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Türkei
1%
Österreich
1%
Schweden
1%
Kanada
<1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%
Tschechien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
DR Kongo
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 18.6%
Spanien 16.8%
England 11.3%
Brasilien 9.2%
$1,009,070,132 Vol.
$1,009,070,132 Vol.
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
19%
Spanien
17%
England
11%
Brasilien
9%
Argentinien
9%
Portugal
8%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
2%
Japan
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Schweiz
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Türkei
1%
Österreich
1%
Schweden
1%
Kanada
<1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%
Tschechien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
DR Kongo
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.6% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Spain, as traders weigh recent form and squad depth across the expanded 48-team field. Spain’s long unbeaten streak in 90-minute matches and strong European Championship pedigree keep it tightly bunched at 16.8%, while England, Brazil, and Argentina sit just behind on the strength of established attacking talent and qualification results. Recent international friendlies have highlighted France’s attacking options and Spain’s possession control, yet injury concerns for key players like Lamine Yamal and ongoing squad finalization across contenders sustain the competitive balance. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these probabilities underscores how evenly matched the leading nations remain with one month until kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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