Trader consensus prices France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a slight edge over Spain (16.4%) boosted by Les Bleus' strong March friendlies including 2-1 and 3-1 victories over Brazil and Colombia, while Spain slipped after Lamine Yamal's hamstring injury in early May ruled out their teenage sensation. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) trail closely, reflecting evenly matched depth across stacked squads headlined by Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, and Ronaldo, plus favorable group draws—France faces Norway and Senegal, Spain Uruguay, England Croatia—that avoid early top clashes in the expanded 48-team format advancing top-two plus eight best third-placed teams. Knockout volatility and final camp fitness reports keep the race intensely competitive.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 18.1%
Spanien 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brasilien 9.2%
$968,993,129 Vol.
$968,993,129 Vol.

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
18%

Spanien
16%

England
11%

Brasilien
9%

Argentinien
9%

Portugal
8%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
2%

Japan
2%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Schweiz
1%

Uruguay
1%

Mexiko
1%

Kroatien
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Türkei
1%

Österreich
1%

Schweden
1%

Kanada
<1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Tschechien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iran
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%

Panama
<1%

Irak
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

DR Kongo
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 18.1%
Spanien 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brasilien 9.2%
$968,993,129 Vol.
$968,993,129 Vol.

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
18%

Spanien
16%

England
11%

Brasilien
9%

Argentinien
9%

Portugal
8%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
2%

Japan
2%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Schweiz
1%

Uruguay
1%

Mexiko
1%

Kroatien
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Türkei
1%

Österreich
1%

Schweden
1%

Kanada
<1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Tschechien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Bosnien-Herzegowina
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iran
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%

Panama
<1%

Irak
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

DR Kongo
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a slight edge over Spain (16.4%) boosted by Les Bleus' strong March friendlies including 2-1 and 3-1 victories over Brazil and Colombia, while Spain slipped after Lamine Yamal's hamstring injury in early May ruled out their teenage sensation. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) trail closely, reflecting evenly matched depth across stacked squads headlined by Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, and Ronaldo, plus favorable group draws—France faces Norway and Senegal, Spain Uruguay, England Croatia—that avoid early top clashes in the expanded 48-team format advancing top-two plus eight best third-placed teams. Knockout volatility and final camp fitness reports keep the race intensely competitive.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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