Recent generic congressional ballot surveys have shown Democrats maintaining leads of five to six points, consistent with the historical midterm disadvantage for the president's party in an environment where all 435 House seats are contested. This dynamic supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the six-to-ten-point range as the most prominent specific outcomes, while the large allocation to broader possibilities reflects ongoing uncertainty from redistricting changes in multiple states and elevated numbers of open Republican seats. Early May polling aggregates continue to highlight these patterns, with procedural factors such as primary results and fundraising trends likely to influence the final margin before November voting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Demokraten 8-10 % 15%
Demokraten 10-12 % 13%
Republikaner 0-2 % 9.6%
Republikaner 2-4 % 9%
$34,656 Vol.
$34,656 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokraten 16%+
3%
Demokraten 14-16%
4%
Demokraten 12-14%
3%
Demokraten 10-12 %
13%
Demokraten 8-10 %
15%
Demokraten 6-8%
8%
Demokraten 4-6%
7%
Demokraten 2-4%
4%
Demokraten 0-2%
5%
Republikaner 0-2 %
10%
Republikaner 2-4 %
9%
Republikaner 4-6%
2%
Republikaner 6 %+
3%
Demokraten 8-10 % 15%
Demokraten 10-12 % 13%
Republikaner 0-2 % 9.6%
Republikaner 2-4 % 9%
$34,656 Vol.
$34,656 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokraten 16%+
$804 Vol.
3%
Demokraten 14-16%
$476 Vol.
4%
Demokraten 12-14%
$462 Vol.
3%
Demokraten 10-12 %
$830 Vol.
13%
Demokraten 8-10 %
$1,555 Vol.
15%
Demokraten 6-8%
$693 Vol.
8%
Demokraten 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
Demokraten 2-4%
$1,002 Vol.
4%
Demokraten 0-2%
$869 Vol.
5%
Republikaner 0-2 %
$864 Vol.
10%
Republikaner 2-4 %
$25,856 Vol.
9%
Republikaner 4-6%
$230 Vol.
2%
Republikaner 6 %+
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic congressional ballot surveys have shown Democrats maintaining leads of five to six points, consistent with the historical midterm disadvantage for the president's party in an environment where all 435 House seats are contested. This dynamic supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the six-to-ten-point range as the most prominent specific outcomes, while the large allocation to broader possibilities reflects ongoing uncertainty from redistricting changes in multiple states and elevated numbers of open Republican seats. Early May polling aggregates continue to highlight these patterns, with procedural factors such as primary results and fundraising trends likely to influence the final margin before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$34,656Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic congressional ballot surveys have shown Democrats maintaining leads of five to six points, consistent with the historical midterm disadvantage for the president's party in an environment where all 435 House seats are contested. This dynamic supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the six-to-ten-point range as the most prominent specific outcomes, while the large allocation to broader possibilities reflects ongoing uncertainty from redistricting changes in multiple states and elevated numbers of open Republican seats. Early May polling aggregates continue to highlight these patterns, with procedural factors such as primary results and fundraising trends likely to influence the final margin before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$34,656Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic congressional ballot surveys have shown Democrats maintaining leads of five to six points, consistent with the historical midterm disadvantage for the president's party in an environment where all 435 House seats are contested. This dynamic supports trader emphasis on Democratic popular vote margins in the six-to-ten-point range as the most prominent specific outcomes, while the large allocation to broader possibilities reflects ongoing uncertainty from redistricting changes in multiple states and elevated numbers of open Republican seats. Early May polling aggregates continue to highlight these patterns, with procedural factors such as primary results and fundraising trends likely to influence the final margin before November voting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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