Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages of 6–8 points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty against the president's party, underpin trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6–12% range for the 2026 House popular vote. Recent forecasts from models like the Economist and polling aggregates reflect this national environment, tempered by ongoing redistricting in multiple states that could modestly alter seat translation without shifting the overall vote margin. The high allocation to "Other" captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle shifts, or wider swings, while low probabilities on Republican outcomes align with the current polling trajectory and historical patterns for the out-party in midterm cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Demokraten 8-10 % 27%
Demokraten 10-12 % 22%
Demokraten 6-8% 19%
Demokraten 4-6% 12%
$119,661 Vol.
$119,661 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokraten 16%+
1%
Demokraten 14-16%
2%
Demokraten 12-14%
8%
Demokraten 10-12 %
22%
Demokraten 8-10 %
27%
Demokraten 6-8%
19%
Demokraten 4-6%
12%
Demokraten 2-4%
6%
Demokraten 0-2%
2%
Republikaner 0-2 %
6%
Republikaner 2-4 %
3%
Republikaner 4-6%
1%
Republikaner 6 %+
2%
Demokraten 8-10 % 27%
Demokraten 10-12 % 22%
Demokraten 6-8% 19%
Demokraten 4-6% 12%
$119,661 Vol.
$119,661 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokraten 16%+
$3,158 Vol.
1%
Demokraten 14-16%
$2,466 Vol.
2%
Demokraten 12-14%
$4,106 Vol.
8%
Demokraten 10-12 %
$7,995 Vol.
22%
Demokraten 8-10 %
$13,866 Vol.
27%
Demokraten 6-8%
$13,877 Vol.
19%
Demokraten 4-6%
$5,245 Vol.
12%
Demokraten 2-4%
$14,161 Vol.
6%
Demokraten 0-2%
$13,479 Vol.
2%
Republikaner 0-2 %
$5,143 Vol.
6%
Republikaner 2-4 %
$29,530 Vol.
3%
Republikaner 4-6%
$2,878 Vol.
1%
Republikaner 6 %+
$3,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages of 6–8 points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty against the president's party, underpin trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6–12% range for the 2026 House popular vote. Recent forecasts from models like the Economist and polling aggregates reflect this national environment, tempered by ongoing redistricting in multiple states that could modestly alter seat translation without shifting the overall vote margin. The high allocation to "Other" captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle shifts, or wider swings, while low probabilities on Republican outcomes align with the current polling trajectory and historical patterns for the out-party in midterm cycles.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$119,661Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages of 6–8 points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty against the president's party, underpin trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6–12% range for the 2026 House popular vote. Recent forecasts from models like the Economist and polling aggregates reflect this national environment, tempered by ongoing redistricting in multiple states that could modestly alter seat translation without shifting the overall vote margin. The high allocation to "Other" captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle shifts, or wider swings, while low probabilities on Republican outcomes align with the current polling trajectory and historical patterns for the out-party in midterm cycles.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volumen
$119,661Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling averages of 6–8 points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty against the president's party, underpin trader emphasis on Democratic margins in the 6–12% range for the 2026 House popular vote. Recent forecasts from models like the Economist and polling aggregates reflect this national environment, tempered by ongoing redistricting in multiple states that could modestly alter seat translation without shifting the overall vote margin. The high allocation to "Other" captures residual uncertainty around turnout, late-cycle shifts, or wider swings, while low probabilities on Republican outcomes align with the current polling trajectory and historical patterns for the out-party in midterm cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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