Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 9.0 in 2026, with the strongest events limited to 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.0–7.5 quakes elsewhere. Megathrust events capable of 9.0+ magnitudes occur along subduction zones on recurrence intervals of centuries to millennia, placing the near-term odds of one materializing before January 2027 at extremely low levels consistent with trader pricing. Current activity remains within normal background rates without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate risk. An unexpected full-margin rupture in a high-slip subduction zone such as Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still occur, though paleoseismic records and real-time observations provide no supporting indicators for such an outlier in the remaining months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert9.0 oder höher Erdbeben vor 2027?
9.0 oder höher Erdbeben vor 2027?
Ja
6% Chance
$273,867 Vol.
$273,867 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
6% Chance
$273,867 Vol.
$273,867 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 9.0 in 2026, with the strongest events limited to 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.0–7.5 quakes elsewhere. Megathrust events capable of 9.0+ magnitudes occur along subduction zones on recurrence intervals of centuries to millennia, placing the near-term odds of one materializing before January 2027 at extremely low levels consistent with trader pricing. Current activity remains within normal background rates without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate risk. An unexpected full-margin rupture in a high-slip subduction zone such as Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still occur, though paleoseismic records and real-time observations provide no supporting indicators for such an outlier in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$273,867Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 9.0 in 2026, with the strongest events limited to 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.0–7.5 quakes elsewhere. Megathrust events capable of 9.0+ magnitudes occur along subduction zones on recurrence intervals of centuries to millennia, placing the near-term odds of one materializing before January 2027 at extremely low levels consistent with trader pricing. Current activity remains within normal background rates without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate risk. An unexpected full-margin rupture in a high-slip subduction zone such as Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still occur, though paleoseismic records and real-time observations provide no supporting indicators for such an outlier in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$273,867Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no earthquakes reaching magnitude 9.0 in 2026, with the strongest events limited to 7.7 in Indonesia and several 7.0–7.5 quakes elsewhere. Megathrust events capable of 9.0+ magnitudes occur along subduction zones on recurrence intervals of centuries to millennia, placing the near-term odds of one materializing before January 2027 at extremely low levels consistent with trader pricing. Current activity remains within normal background rates without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation signals that would elevate risk. An unexpected full-margin rupture in a high-slip subduction zone such as Cascadia or the Japan Trench could still occur, though paleoseismic records and real-time observations provide no supporting indicators for such an outlier in the remaining months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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