Recent static fire testing of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 ended in a destructive explosion on May 28, 2026, damaging pad infrastructure shortly after FAA return-to-flight clearance following the NG-3 upper-stage anomaly in April. Blue Origin has acknowledged the setback but projects a possible return to flight before year-end, with multiple payloads such as Amazon Leo satellites now listed as NET late 2026 or TBD. Pad repairs, root-cause investigation, and vehicle recertification introduce substantial schedule risk in the remaining months, aligning with trader consensus that another orbital attempt before January 2027 faces low probability. Historical multi-year delays for the BE-4-powered vehicle further support the 86.5% market-implied odds on no launch occurring in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static fire testing of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 ended in a destructive explosion on May 28, 2026, damaging pad infrastructure shortly after FAA return-to-flight clearance following the NG-3 upper-stage anomaly in April. Blue Origin has acknowledged the setback but projects a possible return to flight before year-end, with multiple payloads such as Amazon Leo satellites now listed as NET late 2026 or TBD. Pad repairs, root-cause investigation, and vehicle recertification introduce substantial schedule risk in the remaining months, aligning with trader consensus that another orbital attempt before January 2027 faces low probability. Historical multi-year delays for the BE-4-powered vehicle further support the 86.5% market-implied odds on no launch occurring in 2026.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$210Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static fire testing of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 ended in a destructive explosion on May 28, 2026, damaging pad infrastructure shortly after FAA return-to-flight clearance following the NG-3 upper-stage anomaly in April. Blue Origin has acknowledged the setback but projects a possible return to flight before year-end, with multiple payloads such as Amazon Leo satellites now listed as NET late 2026 or TBD. Pad repairs, root-cause investigation, and vehicle recertification introduce substantial schedule risk in the remaining months, aligning with trader consensus that another orbital attempt before January 2027 faces low probability. Historical multi-year delays for the BE-4-powered vehicle further support the 86.5% market-implied odds on no launch occurring in 2026.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volumen
$210Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent static fire testing of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 ended in a destructive explosion on May 28, 2026, damaging pad infrastructure shortly after FAA return-to-flight clearance following the NG-3 upper-stage anomaly in April. Blue Origin has acknowledged the setback but projects a possible return to flight before year-end, with multiple payloads such as Amazon Leo satellites now listed as NET late 2026 or TBD. Pad repairs, root-cause investigation, and vehicle recertification introduce substantial schedule risk in the remaining months, aligning with trader consensus that another orbital attempt before January 2027 faces low probability. Historical multi-year delays for the BE-4-powered vehicle further support the 86.5% market-implied odds on no launch occurring in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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