Traders assign a 95.2% probability that Don Lemon will not be sentenced to prison because the federal civil rights charges against him, stemming from his January 2026 coverage of an anti-ICE protest at a Minnesota church, remain unresolved in pretrial proceedings. Lemon has pleaded not guilty, moved to dismiss the indictment on First Amendment and vindictive prosecution grounds, and received support from media organizations arguing that journalistic newsgathering does not constitute conspiracy or interference with religious exercise. A magistrate initially declined probable cause, though a grand jury later indicted him; the case continues without conviction. Conviction followed by incarceration remains possible only after trial and sentencing, subject to appeals and procedural hurdles typical in such matters.