The market-implied odds heavily favor no Ebola pandemic in 2026 at 96.3 percent because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, first confirmed in Ituri Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May 2026 and later spreading modestly into Uganda, remains regionally contained with over 5,300 confirmed cases and roughly 2,500 deaths as of mid-August. Official surveillance from the WHO and CDC shows sustained transmission limited to specific provinces, a case fatality ratio near 47 percent, and negligible international spread beyond isolated imported cases, consistent with historical patterns of prior Ebola events that did not escalate globally. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of meeting pandemic thresholds—widespread sustained transmission across continents—given robust contact tracing, isolation measures, and the virus's requirement for direct bodily fluid contact rather than airborne routes. Realistic scenarios that could shift probabilities include rapid expansion into major urban hubs or additional countries with inadequate containment, though current epidemiological data and low global risk assessments indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.