Trader consensus implying a 96.4% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained scale of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 4,900 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths reported by mid-August per WHO and CDC surveillance. Despite declaration as a public health emergency of international concern and cross-border spread to Uganda—where the outbreak has since ended—transmission remains largely regional, with negligible cases outside Africa and low assessed global risk due to established infection control, contact tracing, and the virus's transmission dynamics. Historical precedent for Ebola outbreaks shows limited pandemic potential without sustained airborne or high-density urban spread. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected mutations enhancing transmissibility or major containment failures allowing wider international exportation before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% Chance
$692,028 Vol.
$692,028 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
4% Chance
$692,028 Vol.
$692,028 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implying a 96.4% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained scale of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 4,900 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths reported by mid-August per WHO and CDC surveillance. Despite declaration as a public health emergency of international concern and cross-border spread to Uganda—where the outbreak has since ended—transmission remains largely regional, with negligible cases outside Africa and low assessed global risk due to established infection control, contact tracing, and the virus's transmission dynamics. Historical precedent for Ebola outbreaks shows limited pandemic potential without sustained airborne or high-density urban spread. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected mutations enhancing transmissibility or major containment failures allowing wider international exportation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$692,028Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implying a 96.4% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained scale of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 4,900 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths reported by mid-August per WHO and CDC surveillance. Despite declaration as a public health emergency of international concern and cross-border spread to Uganda—where the outbreak has since ended—transmission remains largely regional, with negligible cases outside Africa and low assessed global risk due to established infection control, contact tracing, and the virus's transmission dynamics. Historical precedent for Ebola outbreaks shows limited pandemic potential without sustained airborne or high-density urban spread. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected mutations enhancing transmissibility or major containment failures allowing wider international exportation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$692,028Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implying a 96.4% probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained scale of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 4,900 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths reported by mid-August per WHO and CDC surveillance. Despite declaration as a public health emergency of international concern and cross-border spread to Uganda—where the outbreak has since ended—transmission remains largely regional, with negligible cases outside Africa and low assessed global risk due to established infection control, contact tracing, and the virus's transmission dynamics. Historical precedent for Ebola outbreaks shows limited pandemic potential without sustained airborne or high-density urban spread. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected mutations enhancing transmissibility or major containment failures allowing wider international exportation before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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