Recent euro-area inflation data showing a jump to 3.0% in April, driven by energy-price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward tighter ECB policy. With the deposit facility rate currently at 2.00% following the April 30 hold, the market assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a 25 basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting. This reflects consensus that policymakers will act to contain second-round effects, even as Q1 GDP growth remains subdued at just 0.1%. Surveys of economists align closely with these odds, pricing two quarter-point increases this year while acknowledging downside growth risks and the absence of pre-commitment to any specific path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 13.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,522 Vol.
$275,522 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 13.3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,522 Vol.
$275,522 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent euro-area inflation data showing a jump to 3.0% in April, driven by energy-price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward tighter ECB policy. With the deposit facility rate currently at 2.00% following the April 30 hold, the market assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a 25 basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting. This reflects consensus that policymakers will act to contain second-round effects, even as Q1 GDP growth remains subdued at just 0.1%. Surveys of economists align closely with these odds, pricing two quarter-point increases this year while acknowledging downside growth risks and the absence of pre-commitment to any specific path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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