The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 13.4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,505 Vol.
$275,505 Vol.
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 86%
No change 13.4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,505 Vol.
$275,505 Vol.
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 Vol.
<1%
No change
$52,213 Vol.
13%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$72,057 Vol.
86%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$53,209 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$275,505Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$275,505Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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