Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$16Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$16Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s ongoing unrest, driven by INGV monitoring of seismic swarms, sulfur dioxide emissions, and ground deformation, underpins the 60% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ eruption by year-end. A January 1 effusive phase produced fissure-fed lava flows extending 3.2 km in Valle del Bove, followed by a March 4 impulsive explosion at Bocca Nuova that generated ash plumes and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake. April summit activity included moderate thermal anomalies reaching 28 MW and geochemical evidence of rare 80-kilometer-deep mantle-sourced magma. While current events remain below VEI 2 thresholds, Etna’s pattern of frequent paroxysmal episodes—such as the 2018 event—combined with continued deep recharge suggests escalation remains plausible. Weekly INGV bulletins will highlight any intensification ahead of potential resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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