Trader sentiment heavily favors a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below at 68% implied probability because the strongest event recorded so far is the Mw 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in June, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations, with subsequent events including a 7.7 off Indonesia in mid-August failing to surpass it. With roughly four months remaining, the Gutenberg-Richter distribution makes higher-magnitude quakes exponentially rarer, and no 8.0+ events have occurred despite 10+ magnitude-7+ shocks year-to-date. Market odds reflect this baseline plus the low historical frequency of great earthquakes late in any calendar year, tempered by ongoing seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS that could update probabilities if new activity emerges near major subduction zones.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Erdbebenstärke im Jahr 2026?
Höchste Erdbebenstärke im Jahr 2026?
7,9 oder weniger 71%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2–8,3 10%
8,6 – 8,7 8%
NEU
NEU
3. Jan. 2027
7,9 oder weniger
71%
8,0 – 8,1
12%
8,2–8,3
10%
8,4–8,5
7%
8,6 – 8,7
8%
8,8 – 8,9
5%
9,0 oder mehr
4%
7,9 oder weniger 71%
8,0 – 8,1 12%
8,2–8,3 10%
8,6 – 8,7 8%
NEU
NEU
3. Jan. 2027
7,9 oder weniger
$110 Vol.
71%
8,0 – 8,1
$40 Vol.
12%
8,2–8,3
$55 Vol.
10%
8,4–8,5
$40 Vol.
7%
8,6 – 8,7
$60 Vol.
8%
8,8 – 8,9
$40 Vol.
5%
9,0 oder mehr
$27 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment heavily favors a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below at 68% implied probability because the strongest event recorded so far is the Mw 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in June, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations, with subsequent events including a 7.7 off Indonesia in mid-August failing to surpass it. With roughly four months remaining, the Gutenberg-Richter distribution makes higher-magnitude quakes exponentially rarer, and no 8.0+ events have occurred despite 10+ magnitude-7+ shocks year-to-date. Market odds reflect this baseline plus the low historical frequency of great earthquakes late in any calendar year, tempered by ongoing seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS that could update probabilities if new activity emerges near major subduction zones.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volumen
$371Enddatum
4. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment heavily favors a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below at 68% implied probability because the strongest event recorded so far is the Mw 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in June, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations, with subsequent events including a 7.7 off Indonesia in mid-August failing to surpass it. With roughly four months remaining, the Gutenberg-Richter distribution makes higher-magnitude quakes exponentially rarer, and no 8.0+ events have occurred despite 10+ magnitude-7+ shocks year-to-date. Market odds reflect this baseline plus the low historical frequency of great earthquakes late in any calendar year, tempered by ongoing seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS that could update probabilities if new activity emerges near major subduction zones.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$371Enddatum
4. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors a 2026 maximum of 7.9 or below at 68% implied probability because the strongest event recorded so far is the Mw 7.8 Mindanao earthquake in June, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations, with subsequent events including a 7.7 off Indonesia in mid-August failing to surpass it. With roughly four months remaining, the Gutenberg-Richter distribution makes higher-magnitude quakes exponentially rarer, and no 8.0+ events have occurred despite 10+ magnitude-7+ shocks year-to-date. Market odds reflect this baseline plus the low historical frequency of great earthquakes late in any calendar year, tempered by ongoing seismic monitoring from agencies like the USGS that could update probabilities if new activity emerges near major subduction zones.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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