SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 109 flights through mid-September 2026 with near-perfect success rates, underpins the 78% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Reusable booster operations across Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, combined with Gwynne Shotwell's guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 missions, align with the current pace and a full manifest of Starlink batches, national security payloads, and crewed or cargo missions. Starship Flight 14's upcoming orbital attempt introduces potential upside through additional deployments, yet its early developmental status and limited flight rate keep totals concentrated in the 140-159 band. Ongoing model reliability and range availability through year-end support this consensus, with quarterly manifest updates likely to refine probabilities.