President Donald Trump’s October 2026 comments in a Time interview, where he declined to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act ahead of November midterms, represent the main driver of trader positioning. Those remarks came amid ongoing federal immigration enforcement actions that have sparked protests in cities including Minneapolis and Los Angeles, along with administration concerns over potential election-related disorder. The 1807 statute permits the president to deploy active-duty forces or federalize National Guard units for domestic law enforcement when insurrection, rebellion, or obstructions to federal law occur. No invocation has taken place since 1992, and any move would face legal and political scrutiny. Traders appear to weigh the president’s public openness against the absence of widespread violence meeting statutory thresholds and the short window before the midterms.