Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor within days, triggering the constitutional succession process. The new supreme leader has maintained a low public profile, with limited appearances or statements, which has fueled trader focus on leadership stability amid ongoing regional conflict. A temporary three-person council initially oversaw the transition, while key institutions including the IRGC and presidency have reaffirmed continuity under the theocratic structure. Recent diplomatic signals from Tehran, including outreach on negotiations, and internal debates over reformist versus hardline factions could influence further shifts before year-end deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$13,675,890 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
31. Mai
7%
30. Juni
13%
31. Dezember
34%
$13,675,890 Vol.
31. Mai
$1,991,933 Vol.
7%
30. Juni
$1,089,944 Vol.
13%
31. Dezember
$2,398,133 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor within days, triggering the constitutional succession process. The new supreme leader has maintained a low public profile, with limited appearances or statements, which has fueled trader focus on leadership stability amid ongoing regional conflict. A temporary three-person council initially oversaw the transition, while key institutions including the IRGC and presidency have reaffirmed continuity under the theocratic structure. Recent diplomatic signals from Tehran, including outreach on negotiations, and internal debates over reformist versus hardline factions could influence further shifts before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volumen
$13,675,890Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor within days, triggering the constitutional succession process. The new supreme leader has maintained a low public profile, with limited appearances or statements, which has fueled trader focus on leadership stability amid ongoing regional conflict. A temporary three-person council initially oversaw the transition, while key institutions including the IRGC and presidency have reaffirmed continuity under the theocratic structure. Recent diplomatic signals from Tehran, including outreach on negotiations, and internal debates over reformist versus hardline factions could influence further shifts before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$13,675,890Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor within days, triggering the constitutional succession process. The new supreme leader has maintained a low public profile, with limited appearances or statements, which has fueled trader focus on leadership stability amid ongoing regional conflict. A temporary three-person council initially oversaw the transition, while key institutions including the IRGC and presidency have reaffirmed continuity under the theocratic structure. Recent diplomatic signals from Tehran, including outreach on negotiations, and internal debates over reformist versus hardline factions could influence further shifts before year-end deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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