**Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during the US-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a March 9 vote.** This marked the first dynastic transition in the post's history and coincided with the deaths of other senior figures, including national security officials and IRGC commanders. In the ensuing months, power consolidated among hard-line security and military elites, with appointments such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as national security chief and shifts in Revolutionary Guard leadership. These verified events, occurring within the past six months, anchor trader assessments of whether additional leadership turnover will occur by late 2026 or 2027. Ongoing conflict dynamics, diplomatic signaling, and internal coalition stability remain the primary variables that could influence probabilities for further change within the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$23,584,601 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
22. August
1%
31. August
1%
30. September
5%
31. Oktober
8%
30. November
12%
31. Dezember
17%
30. Juni 2027
26%
$23,584,601 Vol.
22. August
$54,092 Vol.
1%
31. August
$1,171,484 Vol.
1%
30. September
$464,067 Vol.
5%
31. Oktober
$13,861 Vol.
8%
30. November
$11,038 Vol.
12%
31. Dezember
$4,024,233 Vol.
17%
30. Juni 2027
$237,633 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during the US-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a March 9 vote.** This marked the first dynastic transition in the post's history and coincided with the deaths of other senior figures, including national security officials and IRGC commanders. In the ensuing months, power consolidated among hard-line security and military elites, with appointments such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as national security chief and shifts in Revolutionary Guard leadership. These verified events, occurring within the past six months, anchor trader assessments of whether additional leadership turnover will occur by late 2026 or 2027. Ongoing conflict dynamics, diplomatic signaling, and internal coalition stability remain the primary variables that could influence probabilities for further change within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volumen
$23,584,601Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during the US-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a March 9 vote.** This marked the first dynastic transition in the post's history and coincided with the deaths of other senior figures, including national security officials and IRGC commanders. In the ensuing months, power consolidated among hard-line security and military elites, with appointments such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as national security chief and shifts in Revolutionary Guard leadership. These verified events, occurring within the past six months, anchor trader assessments of whether additional leadership turnover will occur by late 2026 or 2027. Ongoing conflict dynamics, diplomatic signaling, and internal coalition stability remain the primary variables that could influence probabilities for further change within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,584,601Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, during the US-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in a March 9 vote.** This marked the first dynastic transition in the post's history and coincided with the deaths of other senior figures, including national security officials and IRGC commanders. In the ensuing months, power consolidated among hard-line security and military elites, with appointments such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as national security chief and shifts in Revolutionary Guard leadership. These verified events, occurring within the past six months, anchor trader assessments of whether additional leadership turnover will occur by late 2026 or 2027. Ongoing conflict dynamics, diplomatic signaling, and internal coalition stability remain the primary variables that could influence probabilities for further change within the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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