Recent short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models point to a minimum temperature near 25–26 °C on August 4, driven by persistent southeasterly flow under a subtropical ridge and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity and cloud cover typical of the summer monsoon regime reduce temperature drops after sunset, while light winds allow modest boundary-layer mixing. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in shower timing and coverage, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25 °C, 26 °C, and 27 °C. Seasonal guidance of normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides broader context but carries little weight this close to the date, leaving resolution dependent on the final observational minimum at the official station.