Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity across Southern California, with no swarms or foreshocks near the Los Angeles basin or major faults like the San Andreas that would signal elevated risk of a magnitude 6.5+ event before year-end. Historical patterns indicate such quakes occur roughly every few years regionally on average, yet the short remaining window through December 2026 and lack of unusual strain accumulation keep trader-implied odds for "No" above 93%. Official long-term forecasts assign far higher probabilities over 30-year horizons, underscoring the rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden, intense foreshock sequence could still shift conditions, though current data offer little indication of that threshold being crossed soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertErdbeben der Stärke 6,5 + in LA vor 2027?
Erdbeben der Stärke 6,5 + in LA vor 2027?
7% Chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
7% Chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity across Southern California, with no swarms or foreshocks near the Los Angeles basin or major faults like the San Andreas that would signal elevated risk of a magnitude 6.5+ event before year-end. Historical patterns indicate such quakes occur roughly every few years regionally on average, yet the short remaining window through December 2026 and lack of unusual strain accumulation keep trader-implied odds for "No" above 93%. Official long-term forecasts assign far higher probabilities over 30-year horizons, underscoring the rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden, intense foreshock sequence could still shift conditions, though current data offer little indication of that threshold being crossed soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$16,533Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity across Southern California, with no swarms or foreshocks near the Los Angeles basin or major faults like the San Andreas that would signal elevated risk of a magnitude 6.5+ event before year-end. Historical patterns indicate such quakes occur roughly every few years regionally on average, yet the short remaining window through December 2026 and lack of unusual strain accumulation keep trader-implied odds for "No" above 93%. Official long-term forecasts assign far higher probabilities over 30-year horizons, underscoring the rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden, intense foreshock sequence could still shift conditions, though current data offer little indication of that threshold being crossed soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$16,533Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity across Southern California, with no swarms or foreshocks near the Los Angeles basin or major faults like the San Andreas that would signal elevated risk of a magnitude 6.5+ event before year-end. Historical patterns indicate such quakes occur roughly every few years regionally on average, yet the short remaining window through December 2026 and lack of unusual strain accumulation keep trader-implied odds for "No" above 93%. Official long-term forecasts assign far higher probabilities over 30-year horizons, underscoring the rarity of rapid escalation. A sudden, intense foreshock sequence could still shift conditions, though current data offer little indication of that threshold being crossed soon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen