The ICC arrest warrant issued against Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains unenforced, as Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has detained him. Trader odds stay low ahead of his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance in New York, where U.S. President Trump has explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil and New York City officials have stated they lack independent authority to act. Netanyahu's ongoing domestic corruption trial in Jerusalem, with testimony phases completed in June 2026, has not produced detention, while his October 2026 re-election contest adds uncertainty over future immunity. These structural and diplomatic barriers continue to shape the slim implied probabilities for any qualifying arrest by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$24,719 Vol.
30. September
1%
31. Dezember
6%
$24,719 Vol.
30. September
1%
31. Dezember
6%
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...The ICC arrest warrant issued against Benjamin Netanyahu in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains unenforced, as Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has detained him. Trader odds stay low ahead of his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance in New York, where U.S. President Trump has explicitly ruled out any arrest on American soil and New York City officials have stated they lack independent authority to act. Netanyahu's ongoing domestic corruption trial in Jerusalem, with testimony phases completed in June 2026, has not produced detention, while his October 2026 re-election contest adds uncertainty over future immunity. These structural and diplomatic barriers continue to shape the slim implied probabilities for any qualifying arrest by year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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