Joe Burrow leads the 2026 NFL MVP market at 30.3% implied probability after a strong stretch that includes 23 passing touchdowns through eight games and a 74% completion rate, helping the Bengals reach 6-2. Trader consensus has shifted toward him in recent days as his efficiency and volume stats outpace most peers. Josh Allen sits at 21.5% following earlier leadership driven by dual-threat production and the Bills’ results, though his share has eased amid a tighter race. Brock Purdy at 14.2% reflects the 49ers’ 7-1 start and his low-turnover efficiency despite receiver injuries. Jordan Love’s 12.0% and Trevor Lawrence’s 10.0% capture recent momentum from the Packers’ surge and the Jaguars’ competitive standing. Deeper options trail due to lower volume, team records, or less consistent impact through midseason.