Patrick Mahomes’ return from ACL surgery and the Chiefs’ 2-0 start, capped by a 33-30 overtime win over the Colts featuring 382 passing yards and three touchdowns from the quarterback, have solidified Kansas City as the clear market leader at 58%. Denver enters at 26% after a 2025 division title but sits at 1-1 following mixed early results and questions about sustaining last year’s defensive edge. Las Vegas at 10.9% has gained traction with its own 2-0 mark and improved play under new coaching, while the Chargers at 4% have dropped to 0-2 amid multiple turnovers and a tough upcoming schedule. The division remains competitive overall, with recent form and quarterback health shaping current implied probabilities.