Early-season rushing touchdown production has created parity in this market, with Josh Allen leading at eight scores through roughly six weeks, followed closely by Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry at seven each, and Jonathan Taylor at six. These paces put several established backs and dual-threat quarterbacks within striking distance of LaDainian Tomlinson’s 28-touchdown benchmark from 2006, yet sustaining such output over a full 17-game schedule remains difficult given workload management, defensive adjustments, potential injuries, and shifting team schemes. The near-even implied probability reflects trader recognition of strong current form alongside the historical rarity of breaking the record.