The Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons restrictions in Cook County and Connecticut supplies the main catalyst for the current 56% implied probability that the justices will strike down AR-15 bans. A 6-3 conservative majority, combined with prior statements from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh questioning lower-court rulings that upheld such measures under the Bruen historical-tradition test, has shifted trader expectations. Arguments scheduled for the fall term will focus on whether these semiautomatic rifles qualify as “arms” in common use for lawful purposes. While the Court’s prior expansion of Second Amendment protections supports the slight edge for invalidation, the outcome remains sensitive to briefing, oral argument, and any unexpected shifts in the Court’s application of Heller and Bruen precedents.