Tyler Robinson faces seven charges, including aggravated murder, in the September 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University. A Utah judge ruled on September 1, 2026, that prosecutors met the probable cause standard after presenting surveillance footage, DNA and ballistic evidence, and text messages in which Robinson allegedly confessed to the killing. Robinson entered not guilty pleas to all counts, and the court set an October 23 status conference to begin scheduling the capital trial, which could extend well into 2027 or later. These pre-trial developments, combined with the time required for discovery, motions, and jury selection in a high-profile case, underpin trader views that conviction remains uncertain at this stage.