Recent Justice Department preparations to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro have driven trader sentiment toward the 60.5% implied probability of charges being filed. The effort centers on his reported role as defense minister in the 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Brothers to the Rescue exile group, an incident long cited by Cuban-American lawmakers and victims’ families. Sources indicate the Trump administration plans to unseal charges in Miami around May 20, coinciding with heightened pressure on Havana that includes threats of further sanctions and possible military measures. While a grand jury must still approve the indictment, the coordinated public statements and timing have aligned market expectations with the likelihood of formal action in the coming days.