Recent U.S.-China trade diplomacy, including the September 2026 Trump-Xi summit and resulting 30-for-30 framework, has extended the tariff truce through early 2027 while recommending reduced duties on roughly $60 billion in reciprocal non-sensitive goods. These steps build on prior de-escalations from peak rates above 100 percent, shifting many covered items toward most-favored-nation levels and supporting trader consensus around a 5–15 percent effective U.S. rate by December 31. Base Section 301 duties on strategic lists plus the 12.5 percent forced-labor surcharge persist for uncovered products, yet exclusions, phased rollbacks, and the truce's structure limit upside pressure through year-end. The narrow window before any post-January adjustments reinforces the leading outcome's positioning, with limited scheduled catalysts likely to alter the range before resolution.