U.S. and Russian officials continue informal discussions on nuclear limits following the February 2026 expiration of New START, the last formal bilateral arms-control treaty capping deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems. President Trump stated in mid-October that talks with Russia and China on denuclearization are underway, while Moscow has signaled willingness to observe prior numerical limits provided Washington does the same. A recent bilateral diesel supply agreement has been cited by Russian envoys as a potential model for broader economic cooperation that could ease sanctions frictions and support strategic stability talks. Key variables include U.S. midterm election timing, any trilateral format involving Beijing’s growing arsenal, verification mechanisms, and constraints on nonstrategic or novel systems. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these diplomatic signals will produce a verifiable agreement within typical resolution windows.