Pope Leo XIV’s consistent emphasis on implementing Vatican II through ongoing catecheses and synodal processes has anchored trader sentiment, with no official convocation or credible signals pointing to an ecumenical council in 2026. Current Vatican activity centers on family-life assemblies, canon-law reviews from the Synod on Synodality, and preparations for a non-conciliar Ecclesial Assembly in 2028, reinforcing the market’s 91% implied probability for “No.” While a surprise consistory announcement or shifting global dialogue needs could theoretically accelerate momentum, historical patterns and the pontiff’s public focus on fidelity to prior council documents make such an outcome remote before year-end.