Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertParlamentswahl in Victoria: 3. Platz
Parlamentswahl in Victoria: 3. Platz
One Nation 80%
Labor 15%
Liberal–National 4.1%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
NEU
NEU
28. Nov. 2026
One Nation
80%
Labor
15%
Liberal–National
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Greens
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Libertarian
4%
One Nation 80%
Labor 15%
Liberal–National 4.1%
Legalise Cannabis 3.9%
NEU
NEU
28. Nov. 2026
One Nation
$0 Vol.
80%
Labor
$4 Vol.
15%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volumen
$4Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$4Enddatum
28. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 2026 Victorian state election shows One Nation consistently placing second or third on primary votes at 22–27%, often ahead of or level with Labor (21–26%) while the Liberal–National Coalition leads or ties on 26–30%. This surge, evident in Redbridge, DemosAU, Roy Morgan, and Resolve surveys from June through August, stems from voter shifts away from the major parties amid leadership changes and policy debates, elevating One Nation as the clearest minor-party contender. Greens and other minors trail at 12–15% and lower, keeping their prospects for third place limited. Traders appear to price One Nation’s position based on sustained primary-vote strength in the final months before the election, with minimal recent movement in aggregates that would alter the ordering.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
59%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
61%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
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