**No major seismic event has occurred in California through mid-August 2026, aligning with USGS records showing only moderate activity such as the June 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley and scattered swarms of magnitude 4+ events.** Long-term UCERF3 models estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every six years statewide, with M7+ or larger remaining statistically uncommon in any single calendar year despite the certainty of eventual large ruptures along faults like the San Andreas. Ongoing USGS monitoring reveals no precursors or accelerating strain that would elevate near-term odds, leaving roughly four months for a qualifying event and reinforcing trader consensus around the current 86.1% implied probability for no.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird Kalifornien im Jahr 2026 ein Erdbeben der Stärke 7,0 oder höher erleben?
Wird Kalifornien im Jahr 2026 ein Erdbeben der Stärke 7,0 oder höher erleben?
14% Chance
NEU
NEU
1. Jan. 2027
14% Chance
NEU
NEU
1. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No major seismic event has occurred in California through mid-August 2026, aligning with USGS records showing only moderate activity such as the June 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley and scattered swarms of magnitude 4+ events.** Long-term UCERF3 models estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every six years statewide, with M7+ or larger remaining statistically uncommon in any single calendar year despite the certainty of eventual large ruptures along faults like the San Andreas. Ongoing USGS monitoring reveals no precursors or accelerating strain that would elevate near-term odds, leaving roughly four months for a qualifying event and reinforcing trader consensus around the current 86.1% implied probability for no.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volumen
$3,806Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. **No major seismic event has occurred in California through mid-August 2026, aligning with USGS records showing only moderate activity such as the June 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley and scattered swarms of magnitude 4+ events.** Long-term UCERF3 models estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every six years statewide, with M7+ or larger remaining statistically uncommon in any single calendar year despite the certainty of eventual large ruptures along faults like the San Andreas. Ongoing USGS monitoring reveals no precursors or accelerating strain that would elevate near-term odds, leaving roughly four months for a qualifying event and reinforcing trader consensus around the current 86.1% implied probability for no.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volumen
$3,806Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No major seismic event has occurred in California through mid-August 2026, aligning with USGS records showing only moderate activity such as the June 5.6 quake near Redwood Valley and scattered swarms of magnitude 4+ events.** Long-term UCERF3 models estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every six years statewide, with M7+ or larger remaining statistically uncommon in any single calendar year despite the certainty of eventual large ruptures along faults like the San Andreas. Ongoing USGS monitoring reveals no precursors or accelerating strain that would elevate near-term odds, leaving roughly four months for a qualifying event and reinforcing trader consensus around the current 86.1% implied probability for no.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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