Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Israeli annexation of Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official government announcements, Knesset legislation, or policy shifts toward formal sovereignty claims despite Israel's expanded military control over roughly 64% of the Strip as of early May. Recent developments center on de facto annexation measures in the West Bank, including settlement expansions and land registration changes approved in February, leaving Gaza operations focused on security zones and Hamas degradation amid ongoing conflict and humanitarian challenges. International opposition, legal barriers under international law, and domestic political priorities against incorporating a densely Palestinian area underpin this high confidence, though a sudden ceasefire, major territorial concession, or escalated far-right pressure could prompt reevaluation before resolution.