Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
$1,176,728 Vol.
December 31
$936 Vol.
37%
$1,176,728 Vol.
December 31
37%
If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market.
An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 2, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...MicroStrategy stock declines amid legal investigation and crypto market volatility
MicroStrategy faced increased selling pressure due to a securities class action investigation and broader crypto market weakness, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the company's financial health and index status.
No official MSCI announcement on MicroStrategy delisting by end of analysis window
December 31 drops to 39%8%
As of June 24, 2026, no official MSCI communication or credible consensus reporting confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or USA Index, indicating the market's final resolution remains uncertain but leans towards retention.
MSCI announces 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results, no MicroStrategy removal
June 30 drops to 0%6%
MSCI released its 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results on June 23, 2026, confirming that MicroStrategy remains included in the MSCI World and USA indexes with no removal or transfer announced, solidifying the company's index status through mid-2026.
MSCI announces results of 2026 Market Classification Review with no mention of MicroStrategy removal
MSCI announced the results of its 2026 Market Classification Review on June 23, 2026, with no indication of MicroStrategy being removed or reclassified from its indexes, signaling continued inclusion and ongoing broader consultation on digital asset treasury companies.
MSCI releases 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results confirming MicroStrategy inclusion
June 30 dips to 0%1%
MSCI's 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results confirmed that MicroStrategy remains included in the MSCI World and USA indexes with no removal or transfer announced, solidifying the company's index status through mid-2026.
MSCI Announces 2026 Market Classification Review Results
December 31 dips to 41%3%
MSCI released the results of its 2026 Market Classification Review, which included considerations relevant to companies like MicroStrategy holding large digital asset treasuries. This announcement influenced market expectations about potential index reclassifications or removals.
CEO Phong Le purchases 11,000 shares of Strategy Inc. on June 22, 2026
June 30 dips to 0%1%
CEO Phong Le bought 11,000 shares of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in a disclosed insider transaction. The purchase was interpreted as confidence in the company’s continued MSCI inclusion and helped stabilise the “June 30” market price after a brief dip.
MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le purchases shares signaling confidence after MSCI index retention
June 30 rises to 3%2%
MicroStrategy's President and CEO Phong Le purchased shares on June 22, 2026, marking insider confidence in the company's future and its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes despite ongoing market volatility, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy remains included in indexes but freezes index weighting growth
June 30 drops to 43%6%
MSCI announced it would not exclude digital asset treasury companies including MicroStrategy from its global equity indexes but imposed constraints by freezing the number of shares and inclusion factors, preventing index weighting growth. This decision preserved MicroStrategy's index seat but limited expansion, reflecting ongoing scrutiny of Bitcoin-heavy corporate treasuries and stabilizing market expectations.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies
June 30 dips to 0%1%
MSCI released its Global Market Accessibility and Classification Review results, reaffirming the pause on excluding DAT companies. The clarification further reduced delisting fears, driving the Yes‑price for June‑30 close to zero.
MicroStrategy director Jarrod Patten sells $9 million in shares amid stock pressure
December 31 jumps to 39%8%
Strategy director Jarrod Patten sold nearly $9 million worth of company stock over several months, reflecting insider selling amid pressure on the company's preferred securities and concerns about dividend funding. This insider activity added to bearish sentiment but did not affect MSCI index inclusion.
MicroStrategy CEO signals confidence amid MSCI index inclusion uncertainty
December 31 drops to 40%13%
MicroStrategy's President and CEO Phong Le purchased shares on June 22, 2026, signaling confidence in the company's future and its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes despite ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.
Market prices drop to zero for MicroStrategy removal from MSCI USA Index by June 30
June 30 drops to 0%5%
By mid-June 2026, the market price for MicroStrategy being removed from the MSCI USA Index by June 30 dropped to zero, indicating strong market consensus that removal would not occur by that date. This reflected the absence of any official MSCI removal announcement or credible reports confirming such action.
MSCI announces 2026 Global Market Accessibility and Classification Review results
December 31 drops to 45%9%
MSCI released results of its 2026 reviews on June 18 and June 23, which could impact index inclusions. Market awaited official announcements regarding MicroStrategy's status, but no confirmed removal was reported by June 14.
Market confidence stabilizes on MicroStrategy MSCI index retention
December 31 surges to 53%21%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, market confidence stabilized with prices reflecting a reduced probability of delisting by March 31, 2026. This outcome confirmed the company's continued inclusion in MSCI benchmarks for the near term.
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal by June 10, 2026
December 31 drops to 60%5%
As of June 10, 2026, no official MSCI communication confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from MSCI World or USA indexes, indicating the market's resolution remains pending or negative for removal.
MSCI announces upcoming consultation on non‑operating companies
June 30 rises to 7%2%
MSCI issued a formal statement that it will conduct a broader consultation on “non‑operating companies” later in 2026, leaving open the possibility of future exclusion for MicroStrategy. The uncertainty pushed the market’s “Yes” probability back up slightly.
Strategy Inc. Stockholders Approve Proposal 5 at Annual Meeting
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Stockholders approved Proposal 5 at the virtual annual meeting, amending corporate terms and resolving some governance uncertainties, which helped stabilize the stock and index outlook.
MSCI notes September quarterly review; no new delisting plans announced
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MSCI issued a routine reminder that its next quarterly review would occur in September, with no indication of upcoming delistings, which marginally steadied the market.
Strategy shareholders approve shifting STRC preferred stock dividends from monthly to semi-monthly
At the 2026 Annual Meeting, Strategy shareholders approved Proposal 5 to change dividend payments on the STRC preferred stock from monthly to semi-monthly, aiming to improve liquidity, reduce reinvestment lag, and stabilize the stock price. The first semi-monthly payment is expected in July 2026.
Strategy buys 1,550 Bitcoin, boosting cash reserves to $1 billion
Following the Bitcoin sale, Strategy resumed accumulation by purchasing 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing total holdings and cash reserves. This move was seen as an effort to restore market confidence and reaffirm the company's long-term Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy shareholders approve key proposals at annual meeting
June 30 dips to 1%1%
At the June 8 annual meeting, MicroStrategy shareholders approved important corporate governance proposals, signaling stability and ongoing operations, which helped maintain confidence in the company's index inclusion status.
MicroStrategy Q2 earnings note unchanged MSCI status
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MicroStrategy released a quarterly earnings brief noting steady Bitcoin holdings and no change in MSCI status, giving the market a final minor adjustment in the ‘Yes’ price.
MicroStrategy remains included in MSCI indexes through March 31, 2026, per official MSCI communications
December 31 surges to 61%26%
Official MSCI communications confirmed that MicroStrategy was not removed from the MSCI World or USA indexes by March 31, 2026, resolving the market question with a 'No' outcome for delisting.
Polymarket assigns 63% probability of MSCI delisting by year-end 2026
December 31 surges to 62%36%
Polymarket prediction markets indicated a 63% chance of MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI indexes by the end of 2026, reflecting heightened market concern after the Bitcoin sale and financial losses.
MicroStrategy stock rallies after MSCI confirms continued index inclusion
December 31 surges to 61%26%
Following MSCI's reaffirmation of MicroStrategy's inclusion in its indexes, the stock rallied significantly, reflecting market relief and confidence in the company's index status.
Prediction market assigns 63% probability of MSCI delisting by year-end
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Following Strategy's Bitcoin sale and Q1 2026 results, prediction markets increased the probability of MSCI delisting to 63%, reflecting heightened investor concern about forced passive-fund selling and the company's financial health.
Polymarket Delisting Probability for MicroStrategy Climbs to 63%
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Following the Bitcoin sale disclosure, market participants priced in a 63% probability of MSCI delisting by the end of 2026, reflecting heightened long-term concerns despite near-term safety.
MicroStrategy Stock Plunges After Bitcoin Sale Announcement
June 30 drops to 1%10%
MicroStrategy stock plummeted 18.4% after the company disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
MicroStrategy remains included in MSCI indexes as of June 2026
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal or transfer from MSCI World or USA indexes has been made by June 4, 2026, indicating the company remains included in these indexes, resolving the market to 'No' for June 30 outcome.
Polymarket Delisting Odds Surge to 63% Following Bitcoin Sale
December 31 surges to 60%25%
Following the Bitcoin sale, analysts and traders heavily debated the future of Strategy Inc. Polymarket traders priced in a 63% probability of MSCI index delisting by year-end, causing the December 31 contract to spike to its highest level in the window.
Market reflects bearish sentiment on MicroStrategy amid Bitcoin sale and MSCI delisting odds
December 31 jumps to 43%11%
Following the Bitcoin sale and shareholder vote anticipation, bearish sentiment intensified with Polymarket assigning a 63% probability to MSCI delisting by year-end 2026, impacting stock price and market outlook.
MicroStrategy director purchases shares signaling confidence after MSCI index inclusion maintained
December 31 surges to 63%28%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, a company director purchased shares, signaling insider confidence and positively influencing market sentiment near the analysis window's end.
MicroStrategy Stock Plunges Following First Bitcoin Sale Since 2022
December 31 plunges to 29%36%
MicroStrategy (Strategy) sold 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, sparking bearish sentiment and raising concerns about the sustainability of its funding model and index inclusion.
MicroStrategy submits formal appeal to MSCI to retain index inclusion
MicroStrategy filed a formal letter with MSCI urging the provider to keep the company in the index, echoing earlier arguments. The move kept the market’s Yes‑probability low after the June‑30 pause announcement.
Strategy Inc. Sells Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022 to Fund Dividends
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
Strategy Inc. sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million to fund preferred stock dividends, raising concerns among bears and increasing speculation about its index status and future treasury operations.
Polymarket’s MSCI‑delisting odds spike to 63 % after Bitcoin sale
June 30 rises to 2%1%
Polymarket’s probability for MSCI delisting peaked at 63 % on June 4, reflecting heightened speculation after the Bitcoin sale, and then collapsed as the market digested the news.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 64%29%
MSCI decided not to proceed with excluding companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes, deferring the decision and maintaining current inclusions. This announcement significantly reduced fears of forced selling and index removal, causing a surge in MicroStrategy-related market prices.
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal by June 3, 2026
As of early June 2026, no official MSCI communication confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or USA Index, leaving market uncertainty about the final outcome.
Market spike on speculation of imminent MSCI decision on MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 63%28%
Early June saw a sharp price increase as traders anticipated a possible MSCI announcement regarding MicroStrategy's index status, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential for removal or reclassification.
MicroStrategy stock plunges after Bitcoin sale announcement
December 31 plunges to 26%28%
Following the Bitcoin sale disclosure, MicroStrategy's stock dropped significantly, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial health and potential MSCI delisting.
MicroStrategy sells small amount of Bitcoin amid market pressures
June 30 rises to 5%4%
MicroStrategy disclosed selling 32 BTC, a tiny fraction of its holdings, to cover preferred stock dividends. This move sparked market speculation about the company's financial health but did not trigger MSCI index removal.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
December 31 drops to 28%5%
MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, 2026, to fund preferred stock dividend distributions, marking its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. The sale was small but symbolically significant, signaling a shift in corporate treasury management and causing short-term market volatility.
Strategy Inc. Discloses First Bitcoin Sale Since 2022 to Fund Dividends
December 31 surges to 62%27%
Strategy Inc. disclosed a minor sale of 32 BTC to cover mandatory cash dividends on its preferred stock. Although representing a tiny fraction of its balance sheet, the first sale in years triggered bearish sentiment and renewed concerns about long-term index eligibility.
MicroStrategy Discloses Small Bitcoin Sale to Cover Preferred Stock Dividends
December 31 surges to 60%25%
MicroStrategy disclosed a microscopic sale of 32 BTC to cover routine cash dividends on its preferred stock. This rare sale of Bitcoin triggered market discussions but did not alter its core index status.
MicroStrategy discloses sale of 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends
MicroStrategy disclosed a small Bitcoin sale to cover mandatory cash dividends on preferred stock, representing a negligible portion of its balance sheet. This event was closely watched but did not trigger MSCI removal, though it influenced market volatility.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
June 30 drops to 43%6%
MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, 2026, generating $2.5 million. This was the company's first Bitcoin sale since 2022, signaling a shift in treasury management strategy amid financial pressures. The sale was minor relative to total holdings but contributed to market volatility and investor concern about the company's financial health.
MSCI Names New Chief Technology Officer Amid Ongoing Index Review
MSCI announced a new CTO appointment, signaling ongoing corporate developments but no direct impact on MicroStrategy's index status, maintaining market uncertainty about delisting outcomes.
MicroStrategy Sells 32 Bitcoin to Fund Preferred Stock Dividends
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 to fund preferred-stock distributions, raising concerns about its capital model and triggering a drop in stock price.
MicroStrategy Discloses First Bitcoin Sale in Years to Fund Dividends
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
MicroStrategy announced the sale of 32 BTC to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022, which triggered a sharp drop in stock price and renewed delisting speculation.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin, first sale in years, amid ongoing MSCI delisting speculation
On June 1, 2026, MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, its first Bitcoin sale in years, to fund preferred stock dividends. This event occurred amid persistent market speculation and a 63% probability assigned by prediction markets of MSCI delisting by year-end, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about index inclusion risks.
MicroStrategy sells 32 BTC to fund preferred‑stock dividends
June 30 drops to 1%6%
MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC (0.004 % of its treasury) to fund preferred dividends, triggering a sharp sell‑off and pushing the ‘Yes’ probability to its lowest point.
Strategy sells 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, first sale since 2022
Strategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, 2026, to fund distributions on its preferred stock. This sale, though small relative to total holdings, broke the company's long-standing 'never sell' policy and caused market concern, impacting stock and Bitcoin prices.
Strategy Inc. sells 32 Bitcoin, first sale in years, sparking market concern
June 30 drops to 3%7%
On June 1, 2026, Strategy Inc. disclosed the sale of 32 BTC to fund preferred stock dividends, marking its first Bitcoin sale in years. This move was perceived as a tactical pivot amid financial pressures and triggered a sharp decline in stock price and increased speculation about MSCI delisting risk.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, first sale since 2022
MicroStrategy's sale of 32 BTC to cover dividend payments marked a break from its 'never sell' pledge, causing market concern about liquidity and financial pressures amid MSCI index uncertainty.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy will stay in its indexes
June 30 rises to 2%1%
MSCI issued a final statement that it will keep MicroStrategy in the MSCI World and USA indexes for now, effectively ending the removal speculation and causing the ‘Yes’ probability to fall to near‑zero by early June.
MSCI implements May 2026 Index Review with no removal of MicroStrategy
June 30 rises to 5%4%
The May 2026 Index Review was implemented on May 29, with no official MSCI announcement or credible reports indicating MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or MSCI USA Index.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review implemented with no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 63%28%
MSCI implemented its May 2026 Index Review changes on May 29, 2026, which included numerous additions and deletions but did not remove or transfer MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or USA indexes, maintaining its index status through the review period.
Renewed market optimism on MicroStrategy's MSCI index inclusion
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
By late May, market prices gradually increased as investors speculated that MicroStrategy might retain its MSCI index inclusion, possibly due to ongoing consultations and the company's continued Bitcoin purchases, which could influence MSCI's classification.
Polymarket Traders Price Rising Odds of MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
Speculation mounted that MicroStrategy would sell some of its Bitcoin holdings to fund preferred stock dividends, following hints from Michael Saylor during the Q1 earnings call. This raised concerns about the company's premium and index status.
Crypto podcast predicts near‑zero chance of MicroStrategy MSCI removal after pause
June 30 dips to 1%2%
A popular crypto‑news podcast analyzed the MSCI pause and suggested the probability of removal was now below 5 %, further nudging the “Yes” odds down to 1 % by 2026‑06‑09.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, 2026, its first Bitcoin sale in nearly four years, signaling a strategic shift to occasionally sell Bitcoin to fund dividends and manage liabilities, which rattled market sentiment but did not affect MSCI index status.
MicroStrategy reiterates lobbying of MSCI to preserve index status
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
MicroStrategy publicly reiterated its lobbying effort with MSCI, emphasizing that its core software business justifies index inclusion. The reminder revived investor doubts, causing a modest rise in the “Yes” probability.
MicroStrategy Reports $11.2 Billion Bitcoin Loss, Sparking Delisting Speculation
December 31 dips to 26%2%
MicroStrategy's reported $11.2 billion Bitcoin loss intensified market fears about its financial stability and potential MSCI index removal, reflected in increased delisting odds in the December 31 contract.
MicroStrategy earnings call: Saylor says index removal risk is “overblown”
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MicroStrategy released a quarterly earnings call transcript in which Saylor downplayed removal risk, causing a brief dip in “Yes” confidence to 2 % on 2026‑05‑15.
Prediction market shows 27.5 % chance of MSCI delisting for MicroStrategy
June 30 drops to 7%5%
A 24/7 Wall St. article highlighted the market’s 27.5 % probability of MSCI delisting, reinforcing the narrative and causing a modest rise in the ‘Yes’ odds.
Senate Banking Committee Passes CLARITY Act to Regulate Digital Assets
The Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to clear the CLARITY Act, which could reshape how federal regulators view corporate digital asset holdings and potentially impact future index eligibility.
MSCI announces May 2026 Index Review results with no removal of MicroStrategy
MSCI announced the results of the May 2026 Index Review effective May 29, 2026, confirming no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes, thus maintaining its index inclusion status through the period.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled
MSCI announced the upcoming May 2026 Index Review results, which could impact index constituents including MicroStrategy, though no removal was indicated at this time.
MSCI Releases May 2026 Index Review Additions and Deletions
MSCI announced its scheduled May 2026 Index Review rebalancing. While MicroStrategy remained in the index due to the earlier pause on digital asset treasury exclusions, the scheduled review date kept traders highly focused on index composition.
MSCI announces May 2026 Index Review results with no removal of MicroStrategy
June 30 plunges to 0%16%
MSCI released the results of its May 2026 Index Review confirming no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes, maintaining its index inclusion status through late May 2026 and reducing market concerns about delisting.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review confirms no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World or USA indexes
June 30 surges to 49%27%
MSCI published the results of its May 2026 Index Review, which included no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA Index. This official confirmation maintained MicroStrategy's index inclusion status, further reducing market concerns about delisting and supporting the 'No' resolution for the June 30 outcome.
Market prices sharply drop amid renewed concerns over MicroStrategy's index status
December 31 plunges to 26%15%
Despite MSCI's earlier decision, market volatility and Bitcoin price fluctuations caused renewed investor uncertainty about MicroStrategy's index inclusion, leading to a sharp price decline in early May 2026.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 18%46%
MSCI officially announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes and undertake a broader review, significantly reducing the market's perceived risk of delisting and causing a sharp drop in delisting probability.
MicroStrategy reports $12.54 billion Q1 loss and signals potential Bitcoin sales
December 31 surges to 33%15%
MicroStrategy reported a $12.54 billion net loss for Q1 2026 due to Bitcoin markdowns and indicated a strategic shift to potentially sell Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, breaking its previous 'never sell' policy. This shift increased market uncertainty but did not affect MSCI index inclusion status.
MicroStrategy sells 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends, signaling financial pressure
June 30 drops to 3%5%
MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale in years, offloading 32 BTC to cover dividend payments on preferred shares. This move raised concerns about liquidity and potential MSCI index removal, negatively impacting market confidence.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
December 31 plunges to 28%23%
MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor engaged directly with MSCI to argue that the company is an operating software business using Bitcoin strategically, aiming to prevent removal from MSCI World and USA indices and preserve passive investment inflows.
MicroStrategy reports $12.5 billion Q1 2026 loss driven by Bitcoin markdown
MicroStrategy posted a record net loss primarily due to a $14.46 billion unrealized markdown on its Bitcoin holdings, highlighting the volatility risk that factors into MSCI's index inclusion considerations.
MicroStrategy Stock Price Reacts to MSCI Index Delisting Speculation
December 31 plunges to 34%17%
Following JPMorgan's report and ongoing MSCI consultations, MicroStrategy's stock price experienced a notable drop, reflecting increased market concern over potential index removal and its financial implications.
MicroStrategy tokenized stock gains momentum despite past exchange delistings
December 31 dips to 27%2%
The tokenized stock of MicroStrategy (MSTRX) showed strong performance and new futures products, attracting momentum traders and indicating market interest, though past delistings on crypto exchanges highlighted regulatory challenges.
FTSE Russell hints at aligning with MSCI on crypto‑heavy company exclusions
December 31 surges to 51%20%
Rumors that FTSE Russell might adopt MSCI’s DATCO policy raised concerns of coordinated exclusion, pushing the “Yes” odds back up to 51 % on 2026‑05‑02.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
December 31 surges to 51%33%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as distinct from investment funds. This lobbying aimed to preserve passive investment inflows critical to the company's capital model.
Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over MicroStrategy MSCI index status
December 31 surges to 52%33%
Despite no official MSCI announcement, market prices for MicroStrategy's removal from the December 31 outcome fluctuated significantly, reflecting investor uncertainty and speculation about the company's index status amid Bitcoin volatility and MSCI's review process.
MSCI World and USA Indexes Show Volatility Amid MicroStrategy Financial Pressures
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Market volatility increased in late April 2026 as MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin losses and share dilution raised concerns about its eligibility for MSCI indexes, reflected in sharp price swings and increased delisting probability in the December 31 contract.
MicroStrategy stock briefly rallies amid speculation of Bitcoin purchase and index inclusion
December 31 surges to 54%36%
MicroStrategy's stock price saw a temporary rally due to speculation about another Bitcoin purchase and hopes of maintaining MSCI index inclusion, reflecting investor optimism despite ongoing risks.
MicroStrategy stock plunges amid Bitcoin sale and MSCI delisting fears
December 31 jumps to 29%11%
Following MicroStrategy's first Bitcoin sale since 2022 to fund dividends, the stock dropped significantly, fueling market speculation about MSCI delisting risks and increasing bearish sentiment reflected in prediction market probabilities.
MSCI announces upcoming free-float methodology revision for May 2026
December 31 dips to 18%1%
MSCI announced a revision to its free-float methodology effective May 2026, which could lead to future index composition changes, keeping market participants cautious about MicroStrategy's index status.
MicroStrategy Discloses Bitcoin Sale to Cover Preferred Stock Dividends
June 30 plunges to 1%52%
MicroStrategy disclosed a sale of 32 BTC worth $2.5 million to cover routine, mandatory cash dividends on its preferred stock, signaling a shift away from Bitcoin accumulation and triggering bearish sentiment.
Market reacts to renewed concerns over MicroStrategy's MSCI index status amid Bitcoin volatility
December 31 surges to 53%34%
Investor sentiment fluctuated as Bitcoin price volatility and ongoing MSCI review of digital asset treasury companies kept uncertainty high, causing sharp price swings in MicroStrategy's stock and affecting market expectations for index inclusion.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indices
December 31 surges to 52%34%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indices could trigger $2.8 billion in forced selling by passive funds, amplifying downward pressure on the stock amid Bitcoin volatility.
MicroStrategy Rebounds as MSCI Decision Alleviates Immediate Delisting Fears
December 31 surges to 54%36%
Following the official reprieve from MSCI, market confidence stabilized, and MicroStrategy shares rallied as the threat of immediate forced passive fund liquidations was removed.
MicroStrategy reports first Bitcoin sale in years amid dividend pressures
December 31 surges to 51%32%
MicroStrategy disclosed selling 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends, signaling financial strain. This event raised concerns about the company's stability and potential impact on its MSCI index status, causing price fluctuations.
MSCI Spares MicroStrategy and Other Digital Asset Treasury Companies from Immediate Index Exclusion
June 30 surges to 49%45%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with a proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) like MicroStrategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes during its upcoming reviews, though it froze their index footprint and deferred size-segment migrations.
MSCI Pauses Crypto Exclusions, Retaining MicroStrategy in Global Indexes
June 30 plunges to 5%44%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with its proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes during the review, choosing instead to launch a broader classification review.
Market reacts to ongoing MSCI review with increased volatility in MicroStrategy shares
December 31 surges to 50%31%
Uncertainty over MSCI's final decision led to heightened volatility in MicroStrategy's stock, reflecting investor concerns about potential forced outflows and index removal.
MicroStrategy stock rebounds on optimism after MSCI defers exclusion decision
December 31 surges to 54%36%
Following MSCI's decision to maintain MicroStrategy in its indexes, the stock price rebounded significantly, reflecting restored investor confidence and reduced fears of forced selling.
MSCI Confirms Retention of Digital Asset Treasury Companies in February Index Review
June 30 surges to 47%36%
MSCI officially decided not to proceed with its proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes, choosing instead to pause exclusions and launch a broader review.
Market speculation intensifies on MSCI's pending decision on MicroStrategy index status
December 31 surges to 53%35%
In late April 2026, market prices surged as investors speculated that MSCI might move to exclude or reclassify MicroStrategy due to its large Bitcoin holdings, reflecting fears of forced passive fund selling. This speculation caused a sharp increase in the probability pricing for the December 31 outcome.
MSCI consultation on digital asset treasury companies closes without immediate removal decision
December 31 surges to 51%33%
MSCI closed its consultation period on December 31, 2025, but as of late April 2026, no official removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes was announced, sustaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
Strategy Inc. Expands Bitcoin Treasury to Over 818,000 BTC with New Purchase
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announced a fresh purchase of 3,273 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. This continued aggressive accumulation reinforced its status as a digital asset treasury company, keeping index inclusion risks in focus.
Strategy Inc. Acquires 3,273 Bitcoin to Expand Treasury Reserves
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Strategy Inc. continued its aggressive treasury strategy by purchasing an additional 3,273 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 818,000 BTC. This purchase temporarily boosted optimism in the firm's strategy, causing the December 31 delisting probability to drop to 18% as the market stabilized.
MSCI continues consultation on classification of Bitcoin-heavy companies
MSCI maintained its review process on how to classify companies like MicroStrategy with large Bitcoin treasuries, delaying any exclusion decisions. This ongoing uncertainty influenced market pricing on MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI announces free‑float rounding update; no delisting of DAT firms
June 30 drops to 12%5%
MSCI reiterated that its revised free‑float methodology would apply on June 1, hinting at possible weight changes but confirming no delisting, which temporarily eased market fears.
JPMorgan Research Report Warns of MicroStrategy Index Removal Risk
June 30 surges to 50%42%
JPMorgan published a research report highlighting the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes, warning of potential $2.8 billion in forced sell-offs. This report triggered significant backlash from the Bitcoin community and increased market volatility around MicroStrategy's index status.
Bitcoin climbs 12 % on U.S. regulatory optimism
December 31 jumps to 51%13%
Bitcoin rallied 12 % after positive regulatory news in the U.S., temporarily easing MSCI‑related concerns and lifting MSTR’s ‘Yes’ price modestly.
MicroStrategy announces additional Bitcoin acquisition, boosting treasury balance
December 31 drops to 18%5%
MicroStrategy issued a press release highlighting a new Bitcoin purchase, temporarily boosting optimism that the firm’s treasury strategy remained strong, lifting the “Yes” probability to 18 % on 2026‑04‑25.
Market prices for MicroStrategy delisting fall to lows amid no MSCI removal news
December 31 drops to 18%12%
By late April 2026, market prices for MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI indexes dropped significantly, reflecting the absence of any official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer, indicating market consensus that delisting was unlikely by March 31, 2026.
MicroStrategy announces large Bitcoin purchase amid MSCI index inclusion debate
MicroStrategy purchased an additional 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion, reinforcing its Bitcoin treasury strategy during ongoing MSCI index inclusion discussions, which influenced market perceptions of the company's risk profile.
MicroStrategy posts $12.5 bn Q1 loss, stock slides 25 % YTD
June 30 drops to 14%9%
MicroStrategy’s Q1‑2026 earnings release showed a $12.5 bn net loss and a 25 % YTD stock decline, reviving concerns over its viability and nudging the market probability upward.
MicroStrategy Files SEC 8-K Filing with Updated Bitcoin Holdings
June 30 drops to 9%9%
MicroStrategy filed its SEC 8-K filing on April 13, 2026, disclosing its Bitcoin holdings of 780,897 BTC, purchased at approximately $59.02 billion, which provided transparency about the company's treasury strategy and valuation.
Market confidence in MicroStrategy's MSCI inclusion collapses amid ongoing uncertainty
December 31 drops to 18%14%
By mid-April, market prices for MicroStrategy's delisting probability dropped sharply, reflecting persistent doubts about its index status despite no official MSCI removal announcement, indicating market skepticism.
MicroStrategy faces MSCI index removal risk due to Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet
December 31 drops to 18%5%
MicroStrategy's substantial Bitcoin holdings, exceeding 25% of total assets, triggered MSCI's review for potential exclusion from major indexes, raising concerns about forced passive fund outflows estimated at $2.8 billion. This news heightened market uncertainty about MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy index eligibility ongoing ahead of January 2026 decision
December 31 drops to 17%6%
MSCI was reviewing MicroStrategy's eligibility for inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet, with a final decision expected January 15, 2026. This consultation raised market concerns about potential forced outflows from passive funds.
SEC Unveils 'Reg Crypto' Providing Comprehensive Legal Framework
December 31 drops to 19%13%
The SEC introduced Regulation Crypto Assets under Chairman Paul Atkins, establishing a safe-harbor exemption and reclassifying most digital tokens as non-securities, which boosted institutional confidence in crypto-heavy firms.
MSCI announces broader review of classification for companies with significant crypto holdings
December 31 dips to 18%1%
MSCI announced it would pause exclusion plans and conduct a broader review of how companies with significant digital asset holdings are classified, preserving current index access for Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy.
MSCI announces pause on excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from indexes
December 31 jumps to 32%14%
MSCI announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes and undertake a broader review of classification criteria. This decision preserved MicroStrategy's index inclusion and reduced delisting risk in the near term.
MicroStrategy reports large Bitcoin holdings amid MSCI inclusion
December 31 rises to 32%2%
MicroStrategy reported substantial Bitcoin holdings and remained the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reinforcing its identity as a Digital Asset Treasury Company. This supported its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes as of March 2026.
MSCI announces no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World and USA indices
June 30 dips to 12%3%
On March 31, 2026, MSCI announced its decision to reclassify Greece but did not remove MicroStrategy from its indices, confirming the company's continued inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices. This announcement reinforced market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status through the first quarter of 2026.
MSCI announces no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World and USA indices
December 31 rises to 32%2%
On March 31, 2026, MSCI announced its decision to reclassify Greece but did not remove MicroStrategy from its indices, confirming the company's continued inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices. This announcement reinforced market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status through the first quarter of 2026.
MSCI Reviews Index Methodology for Crypto-Asset Companies
As of early March 2026, MSCI was reportedly reviewing its inclusion criteria to potentially exclude companies whose primary business is owning cryptocurrency assets, raising concerns about MicroStrategy's potential removal from major indices.
MicroStrategy shares drop amid Bitcoin price decline, no MSCI delisting
June 30 drops to 12%6%
MicroStrategy shares fell 6.5% following Bitcoin breaking below key support levels, reflecting the company's leveraged Bitcoin exposure. However, no MSCI announcement indicated removal from indexes, and the drop was attributed to market volatility rather than index changes.
MicroStrategy announces significant Bitcoin purchase amid ongoing MSCI inclusion
December 31 rises to 30%3%
MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by purchasing 22,337 coins, reinforcing its digital asset treasury strategy while remaining included in MSCI indexes, supporting investor confidence.
MicroStrategy pushes back on MSCI exclusion, cites software core
December 31 rises to 38%3%
MicroStrategy publicly reiterated its lobbying effort, emphasizing that its software business, not a crypto fund, should keep it eligible for MSCI, nudging the ‘Yes’ price slightly upward.
MSCI freezes share‑count adjustments for DATCOs including MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 42%9%
MSCI published a follow‑up clarification that, while it will keep MicroStrategy in the current indexes, it will freeze any future increases to its share‑count factor, limiting future passive inflows. The market interpreted this as a partial setback, nudging the “Yes” probability upward slightly.
MicroStrategy's share dilution and Bitcoin purchases raise index inclusion concerns
December 31 drops to 27%6%
MicroStrategy's ongoing equity dilution and large Bitcoin acquisitions raised questions about its classification and eligibility for MSCI indexes, contributing to price volatility and uncertainty about delisting.
JPMorgan reissues $2.8 B outflow estimate for potential MSCI removal
June 30 rises to 2%2%
JPMorgan reiterated its outflow estimate in a research note, reminding markets of the €2.8 B risk. The reminder coincided with a modest rise in the Yes‑price for the June‑30 outcome.
Market reacts negatively to MicroStrategy's financial losses and delisting concerns
December 31 plunges to 27%57%
Following MicroStrategy's Q4 2025 earnings report showing significant losses and ongoing concerns about MSCI delisting risk, market confidence dropped sharply, reflecting fears about the company's financial health and index status.
Analyst downplays MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%31%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops, which helped moderate market fears and stabilize prices for the December 31 outcome.
MSCI's clarification on index inclusion boosts MicroStrategy stock amid Bitcoin price stall
December 31 surges to 58%26%
MSCI's clarification removing the overhang for digital asset treasury companies led to a rally in MicroStrategy shares, even as Bitcoin prices stalled. This event temporarily improved investor confidence in MicroStrategy's index status and its stock performance.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 27%29%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk of significant capital outflows from MicroStrategy if MSCI excludes it due to Bitcoin holdings, underscoring market concerns and influencing price volatility in early 2026.
Analyst downplays MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy amid Bitcoin price rise
December 31 surges to 84%51%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops, but the stock price not rising with Bitcoin. This reassured investors about MSCI inclusion risks.
JPMorgan warns of significant stock selloff risk if MicroStrategy delisted from MSCI
December 31 plunges to 27%28%
JPMorgan analysts flagged that exclusion of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could lead to substantial valuation pressure due to forced selling by passive index funds, increasing market concerns about potential delisting.
JPMorgan warns of risk to MicroStrategy stock if MSCI excludes it from indexes
December 31 drops to 27%6%
JPMorgan analysts publicly warned that exclusion of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could lead to significant valuation pressure due to passive fund ownership, raising market concerns about potential delisting despite MSCI's retention decision.
Analyst Jeff Dorman Downplays MSCI Delisting Risk for MicroStrategy
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, publicly stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes is not the biggest threat to the company, which helped moderate market concerns about imminent delisting.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8B-$8.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes could trigger billions in forced selling by passive index funds, intensifying market concerns about the company's index status and Bitcoin exposure.
MicroStrategy announces weekly Bitcoin purchase amid rising Bitcoin prices
December 31 surges to 84%51%
MicroStrategy announced a weekly Bitcoin purchase as Bitcoin prices rose, signaling continued commitment to its Bitcoin treasury strategy. This announcement briefly increased market optimism about MicroStrategy's stability and index inclusion.
Analysts warn MSCI could broaden review to all non‑operating firms in March
December 31 drops to 27%14%
A speculative report suggested MSCI might expand its review to “non‑operating” companies in March, briefly reviving removal fears and causing a temporary dip to 27 % on 2026‑03‑06.
Arca Analyst Downplays MicroStrategy MSCI Delisting and Bitcoin Crash Risks
December 31 plunges to 27%31%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, pushed back against concerns that MicroStrategy faces meaningful downside from potential MSCI index removal, stabilizing market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of multibillion‑dollar sell‑off if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 84%43%
JPMorgan analysts warned that a potential MSCI delisting could trigger an $8.8 bn sell‑off, reigniting market concern and pushing the ‘Yes’ probability back up sharply.
Arca CIO says MSCI removal isn’t the biggest risk for MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%57%
Arca’s CIO downplayed delisting risk, stating the biggest threat is the stock not rising with Bitcoin. The comment softened sentiment, pulling the ‘Yes’ probability down.
Analyst Jeff Dorman downplays impact of potential MSCI delisting on MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 55%28%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that removal from MSCI indexes would be marginally bad for MicroStrategy's stock but irrelevant for Bitcoin, suggesting limited fundamental impact and tempering market fears.
Arca Chief Investment Officer Downplays MicroStrategy MSCI Delisting Risks
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, publicly pushed back on concerns that MicroStrategy would face meaningful downside from a potential MSCI index removal, stabilizing market sentiment.
Analyst downplays risk of MSCI delisting for MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, publicly stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes was not a significant threat, pushing back against market fears and temporarily stabilizing sentiment.
MSCI clarifies it will retain MicroStrategy in its indexes with limitations
December 31 surges to 56%24%
MSCI announced it would keep MicroStrategy in its flagship indexes but limit new share weighting, alleviating some concerns about delisting and supporting liquidity. This clarification led to a rally in MicroStrategy shares and reduced delisting fears.
Analyst says MSCI delisting not biggest risk for MicroStrategy
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that potential MSCI removal or Bitcoin price drops are not the main risks for MicroStrategy, which helped stabilize market sentiment amid delisting concerns.
Arca CIO Downplays Impact of Potential MSCI Delisting on MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 33%26%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, argued that a potential future removal from the MSCI index would be marginally bad for the stock but ultimately irrelevant for Bitcoin and the company's core business.
MSCI clarifies it will not exclude digital asset treasury firms including MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 58%26%
On March 5, 2026, MSCI issued a clarification that digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy will remain included in its indexes, removing a key overhang and leading to a rally in MicroStrategy shares. This official stance confirmed no delisting or transfer had occurred by this date.
JPMorgan warns MicroStrategy faces risk if excluded from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 58%26%
JPMorgan analysts warned on March 5, 2026, that MicroStrategy could face significant valuation pressure and forced selling if MSCI decided to exclude digital asset treasury companies. This report highlighted market concerns but did not confirm any actual delisting or transfer.
Analyst states MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy is marginal and not immediate
December 31 surges to 56%24%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being dropped from MSCI indexes is marginally bad for the stock and irrelevant for Bitcoin, suggesting no imminent delisting threat, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
Analyst downplays risk of MicroStrategy MSCI delisting amid Bitcoin price rise
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops but the stock price not rising with Bitcoin. This reassured investors and contributed to a modest price increase.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 B outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
JPMorgan released an analysis reiterating that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI could trigger $2.8 billion of forced outflows, renewing market concerns and lifting the “Yes” probability after a brief dip.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 32%9%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, actively lobbied MSCI to avoid exclusion, emphasizing its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, which temporarily stabilized market sentiment.
MSCI clarifies no immediate delisting for digital‑asset firms
December 31 rises to 35%3%
MSCI issued a clarification that its consultation on “digital‑asset treasury” firms would close on Dec 31 2025 and that no immediate delisting would occur, stabilising the market for a brief period.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the significant market impact of potential exclusion due to Bitcoin holdings.
Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over MicroStrategy MSCI index status
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
With no official MSCI removal announcement, market sentiment remained cautious, reflected in fluctuating prices as investors weighed the risk of potential exclusion against MicroStrategy's lobbying efforts.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to retain index inclusion amid Bitcoin volatility concerns
December 31 drops to 27%7%
MicroStrategy's Chairman Michael Saylor engaged directly with MSCI to argue that the company is an operating software business using Bitcoin strategically, aiming to prevent exclusion from MSCI USA and World indexes. This lobbying helped maintain investor confidence temporarily.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid exclusion from indexes
December 31 drops to 27%6%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as distinct from investment funds. This lobbying aimed to preserve passive investment inflows and stabilize market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 dips to 34%1%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, amplifying market concerns and impacting MicroStrategy's stock price.
MSCI imposes constraints on MicroStrategy’s index inclusion despite retaining stock
December 31 drops to 34%7%
MSCI decided to keep MicroStrategy in its indexes but imposed restrictions such as freezing share count adjustments and deferring additions, limiting future passive inflows. This decision maintained MicroStrategy’s index presence but capped potential growth from passive investment flows, sustaining market uncertainty.
MSCI World Index rebalance excludes some U.S. stocks but retains MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%29%
MSCI implemented its February 2026 index rebalance, removing 27 firms and adding 18, with a net reduction in U.S. stocks. Despite the reshuffle, MicroStrategy was not expelled from the MSCI World Index, reflecting MSCI's decision to maintain digital asset treasury companies in the index for now.
MSCI World Index rebalance confirms MicroStrategy remains included
December 31 surges to 56%26%
MSCI's quarterly rebalance, effective March 2, 2026, confirmed that MicroStrategy would not be expelled from the MSCI World Index, despite a net reduction in U.S. stocks. This reassured investors and caused a temporary price increase.
MSCI World Index rebalance set for March 2, 2026 – MicroStrategy not slated for removal
December 31 plunges to 41%18%
MSCI announced the upcoming rebalance effective March 2, 2026, which added 18 firms and removed 27, but confirmed MicroStrategy would not be among the deletions. The announcement caused a brief dip in ‘Yes’ as the market priced the upcoming turnover.
MSCI World Index Rebalancing Takes Effect with MicroStrategy Retained
December 31 dips to 32%2%
The quarterly rebalancing of the MSCI World Index took effect at the close of trading, officially confirming that MicroStrategy was retained and no delisting or transfer occurred during this review cycle.
MSCI implements February 2026 Index Review changes with MicroStrategy retained
December 31 drops to 52%12%
MSCI implemented the February 2026 Index Review changes as of February 27, 2026, officially retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI indexes, confirming no removal or transfer occurred during the analysis window.
MSCI World Micro Cap Index adds ACG Metals, no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 rises to 34%1%
On February 27, 2026, MSCI announced additions to its indexes such as ACG Metals to the MSCI World Micro Cap Index, with no indication of MicroStrategy removal or transfer, confirming its continued inclusion ahead of the March 2026 period.
MSCI World Index Rebalance Retains MicroStrategy Despite Portfolio Reshuffle
December 31 surges to 56%23%
MSCI announced a major portfolio reshuffle effective March 2, 2026, removing 27 firms but retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI World Index, including digital asset treasury companies. This decision alleviated immediate delisting fears and supported MicroStrategy's index inclusion probabilities.
MSCI announces major portfolio reshuffle but retains MicroStrategy in indexes
December 31 surges to 58%24%
MSCI announced a significant rebalance of the MSCI World Index effective March 2, 2026, removing 27 firms but explicitly deciding not to expel MicroStrategy and similar digital asset treasury companies. This decision reassured investors and caused a price increase in the December 31 outcome.
MSCI World Index rebalancing excludes MicroStrategy removal
December 31 surges to 84%51%
MSCI executed its quarterly rebalancing for the MSCI World Index, adding and removing several firms but notably retaining MicroStrategy despite its crypto-heavy balance sheet. This reassured investors about MicroStrategy's continued index inclusion at least through March 2026.
MSCI implements February 2026 index changes, MicroStrategy retained
June 30 rises to 15%1%
On February 27, 2026, MSCI implemented its quarterly index rebalancing, which included no removal of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes. This final implementation confirmed the earlier decision to maintain MicroStrategy's inclusion, solidifying market expectations and ending delisting speculation.
MSCI World Index rebalancing effective, MicroStrategy remains included
December 31 dips to 32%1%
The MSCI World Index rebalancing took effect at the close of trading on February 27, 2026, with MicroStrategy retained in the index as per MSCI's earlier announcement, confirming no delisting or transfer occurred during this quarterly review.
MSCI World Index rebalancing maintains MicroStrategy inclusion amid portfolio reshuffle
December 31 rises to 32%2%
MSCI's February 2026 index review included a portfolio reshuffle but retained MicroStrategy in the MSCI World Index, avoiding exclusion and supporting stock stability through March 2026.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 18%46%
MSCI announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes and undertake a broader review of classification. This decision removed immediate risk of MicroStrategy's removal, causing a sharp drop in delisting probability in prediction markets.
Bitcoin falls below $63,000 amid macroeconomic concerns, pressuring MicroStrategy shares
December 31 dips to 18%1%
Bitcoin's drop below $63,000 amid tariff tensions and geopolitical risks further pressured MicroStrategy's stock, which is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price. This contributed to market uncertainty about MicroStrategy's future in MSCI indexes.
MSCI Spares MicroStrategy from Index Exclusion
December 31 plunges to 27%27%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its global equity indexes during the February 2026 review, retaining MicroStrategy in MSCI indexes.
Bitcoin drops another 8 % as volatility spikes
June 30 drops to 14%13%
A further slump in Bitcoin (≈‑8 %) renewed concerns that high volatility could force MSCI to reconsider, causing the market’s ‘Yes’ probability to dip to low‑20 % levels.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to retain MSCI index inclusion
December 31 rises to 34%4%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, actively lobbied MSCI to avoid exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as integral to its operations, which helped stabilize market confidence temporarily.
MSCI pauses DATCO exclusion, MicroStrategy stays in indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%35%
MSCI announced that it would not proceed with an exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) during its February 2026 review, effectively confirming that MicroStrategy would stay in the indexes for the near term. The confirmation pushed the “Yes” probability down further.
Market reacts to MSCI constraints on MicroStrategy's index inclusion
December 31 plunges to 28%24%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy but impose constraints on its index inclusion, the market sharply reduced the probability of MicroStrategy remaining in the indexes by December 31 and June 30. This reflected investor concerns about the company's limited future index growth and ongoing risk of eventual removal.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes amid Bitcoin holdings expansion
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, increased lobbying to emphasize its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, aiming to counter MSCI's criteria that could exclude firms with dominant crypto assets, influencing market sentiment positively.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 41%8%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that MSCI removal of MicroStrategy due to its Bitcoin holdings could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, with potential for up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit. This heightened market concerns about liquidity and stock price pressure.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to retain index inclusion amid Bitcoin holdings expansion
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, aiming to preserve passive investment inflows essential for its capital model.
MicroStrategy stock price declines amid Bitcoin volatility and MSCI exclusion fears
December 31 plunges to 53%19%
Following warnings and ongoing MSCI consultation, MicroStrategy's stock price dropped significantly due to Bitcoin price declines and investor concerns over potential index exclusion, reflecting heightened market volatility and risk perception.
MSCI pauses exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 3%73%
MSCI announced a pause on excluding companies with significant crypto holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes to conduct a broader review. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations of MicroStrategy's delisting, causing a plunge in delisting odds.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy's index eligibility due to Bitcoin holdings
December 31 drops to 41%8%
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with dominant digital asset treasuries, including MicroStrategy, due to its large Bitcoin holdings. This raised concerns about potential forced outflows and index removal, impacting market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the significant market impact of potential exclusion.
Bitcoin crashes $16,000 as IREN joins MSCI USA Index alongside MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 52%7%
While IREN Limited joined the MSCI USA Index, Bitcoin experienced a significant price crash. Despite the crypto market volatility, MSCI's inclusion of crypto-linked firms like MicroStrategy and IREN signaled institutional acceptance, influencing market dynamics.
IREN Joins MSCI USA Index as Second Crypto Firm Alongside MicroStrategy
June 30 rises to 14%3%
IREN Limited was added to the MSCI USA Index, reinforcing MSCI's decision to maintain crypto-linked firms in its benchmarks and further reducing the perceived risk of immediate delisting.
Another crypto firm added to MSCI USA Index amid ongoing debate
December 31 drops to 53%5%
IREN Limited was added to the MSCI USA Index, highlighting ongoing discussions about crypto-heavy companies' place in major stock indices. MicroStrategy had previously pushed back against MSCI's exclusion proposals, calling them discriminatory.
IREN Limited added to MSCI USA Index, expanding crypto-linked stocks in MSCI benchmarks
December 31 rises to 19%1%
IREN Limited, another crypto-related firm, was added to the MSCI USA Index, reflecting the ongoing inclusion of digital asset companies in major indices despite prior MSCI consultations on exclusion. This event highlighted the market's evolving stance on crypto firms' eligibility for traditional equity benchmarks, indirectly supporting MicroStrategy's continued inclusion.
MicroStrategy publicly challenges MSCI's proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies
December 31 rises to 61%3%
MicroStrategy pushed back against MSCI's earlier proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies, calling it "discriminatory, arbitrary, and unworkable." This public stance highlighted the company's efforts to maintain its index inclusion and influenced market sentiment during the review period.
Another Crypto Firm Joins MicroStrategy in MSCI Index
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
IREN Limited announced its addition to the MSCI USA Index, signaling continued MSCI inclusion of digital asset treasury companies despite previous proposals to exclude them.
Another crypto firm joins MSCI USA Index alongside MicroStrategy
IREN Limited, a Bitcoin mining company, was added to the MSCI USA Index, indicating MSCI's continued inclusion of crypto-related firms and supporting MicroStrategy's position in the index.
MicroStrategy pushes back against MSCI's proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy firms
On February 13, 2026, MicroStrategy publicly criticized MSCI's earlier proposal to remove digital asset treasury companies with more than 50% crypto assets from indexes, calling it discriminatory and unworkable. This strong pushback contributed to MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, influencing market sentiment.
IREN Limited announces addition to MSCI USA Index, joining MicroStrategy
December 31 dips to 52%3%
IREN Limited announced it would be added to the MSCI USA Index on February 27, becoming the second crypto-linked firm in the index after MicroStrategy. This highlighted MSCI's continued acceptance of crypto-related companies, indirectly supporting MicroStrategy's position.
IREN Limited added to MSCI USA Index, highlighting MSCI's stance on crypto firms
June 30 plunges to 15%47%
IREN Limited, another crypto-related firm, was added to the MSCI USA Index on February 27, 2026, signaling MSCI's decision to maintain inclusion of digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy in its indexes despite prior considerations for exclusion.
Market reports confirm MicroStrategy remains in MSCI indexes after February review
June 30 rises to 15%1%
Following the MSCI February 2026 Index Review, market reports confirmed that MicroStrategy was not removed from the MSCI World or USA indexes, reinforcing the official decision and stabilizing investor sentiment.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Retaining MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 33%29%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 quarterly index review, confirming that MicroStrategy would be retained in the MSCI World Index despite a broader portfolio reshuffle.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review results retaining MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 57%11%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, confirming that MicroStrategy would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes, with all changes effective as of February 27, 2026.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor Confirms Stock Remains in MSCI Indexes
June 30 plunges to 10%52%
MicroStrategy's executive chair Michael Saylor confirmed that MSTR stock would remain in MSCI indexes, stating the company is an operating business using Bitcoin strategically.
MSCI Announces Decision to Retain Digital Asset Treasury Companies in Indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%34%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with a proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes during the February 2026 review, retaining MicroStrategy in MSCI indexes.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to maintain index inclusion
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged in lobbying efforts to argue against MSCI's proposal to exclude companies with large Bitcoin holdings, emphasizing its software business and active management of Bitcoin as treasury assets.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes
December 31 jumps to 49%8%
MicroStrategy's Chairman Michael Saylor actively engaged MSCI to argue the company's software business and Bitcoin strategy justify continued index inclusion, aiming to prevent forced sell-offs and maintain passive investment inflows.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Results
June 30 plunges to 14%48%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, implementing changes to the MSCI Equity Indexes as of February 27, 2026. This included deletions from the MSCI USA Index, affecting MicroStrategy's listing.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 rises to 61%3%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk of $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows if MicroStrategy is excluded from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin holdings, intensifying market concerns and volatility around the company's stock.
MSCI February Index Review Confirms MicroStrategy Retains Index Treatment
December 31 plunges to 55%15%
The official results of the February Index Review confirmed that MSCI abandoned its previously floated proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies, allowing MicroStrategy to retain its index treatment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 35%27%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the financial impact of potential exclusion due to Bitcoin holdings.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled with no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review on February 10, confirming no removal of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes. This official communication reinforced MicroStrategy's continued inclusion, impacting market prices positively.
MSCI releases February 2026 Index Review results, retains digital asset treasury companies
December 31 surges to 74%15%
MSCI reversed an earlier proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes, maintaining their inclusion based on significant investor feedback. This decision temporarily boosted confidence in MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review results maintaining MicroStrategy inclusion
December 31 jumps to 64%12%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, deciding to retain Digital Asset Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy in its global equity indexes, reversing earlier exclusion proposals. This official announcement confirmed MicroStrategy's continued inclusion.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
Yes plunges to 31%31%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, engaged in direct lobbying efforts to persuade MSCI to retain the company in its indexes despite its large Bitcoin holdings. The company argued its software business and Bitcoin strategy differentiate it from investment funds, aiming to preserve passive investment inflows essential for its capital model.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review Confirms MicroStrategy Remains Included
June 30 plunges to 18%44%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, implementing a portfolio reshuffle but explicitly retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI World and USA indexes. This decision alleviated immediate delisting fears and caused the probability of a delisting by June 30 to plunge.
MSCI Publishes February Index Review Confirming MicroStrategy Retention
December 31 plunges to 32%30%
MSCI published the results of its February 2026 Index Review, officially confirming that Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) like MicroStrategy would retain their current index treatment.
MSCI publishes February 2026 Index Review results with multiple deletions and additions
December 31 rises to 62%3%
MSCI released the detailed list of securities added and deleted from its indexes, including the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes. This review confirmed the companies affected and set the stage for the February 27 implementation, impacting MicroStrategy's market perception regarding its index status.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's exclusion from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin holdings could trigger forced passive fund outflows estimated at $2.8 billion, amplifying market concerns and volatility around the stock.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review confirms MicroStrategy remains in MSCI indexes
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review results confirming that MicroStrategy and other Digital Asset Treasury Companies would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes, reversing earlier proposals to exclude them. This announcement alleviated fears of delisting and caused positive market reactions.
MSCI Weighs MicroStrategy Removal Over Sizable Bitcoin Exposure
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Reports highlighted that MSCI was still weighing the long-term index eligibility of MicroStrategy due to its digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets, keeping delisting fears alive.
MSCI pauses planned exclusion of crypto‑heavy firms from its indexes
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI announced it would pause the planned exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies (including MicroStrategy) from its global equity indexes. The pause removed immediate removal risk, causing a sharp drop in market confidence that the company would be delisted, which pushed the “Yes” probability down from 52 % to 41 % over the following week.
JPMorgan flags $2.8 bn outflows if MSCI drops MicroStrategy
June 30 plunges to 27%35%
JPMorgan released a note estimating $2.8 bn of outflows if MicroStrategy were removed from MSCI, reigniting fears and pushing the ‘Yes’ price down sharply in early February.
IREN Limited Joins MSCI USA Index as Crypto Firms Maintain Inclusion
June 30 drops to 11%10%
Following MSCI's decision to retain digital asset treasury companies, other crypto-focused firms like Bitcoin miner IREN Limited successfully joined the MSCI USA Index, reinforcing the sector's index eligibility.
MSCI pauses planned exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI announced a pause on excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its indexes to conduct a broader review, which sharply reduced market expectations of MicroStrategy's delisting and caused a drop in the probability of removal.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI officially paused its proposal to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes. This announcement significantly reduced the perceived risk of delisting, causing the market probability for MicroStrategy's removal to plunge sharply.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review scheduled for February 10
December 31 rises to 54%2%
MSCI announced the upcoming February 2026 Index Review results to be released on February 10, with changes effective February 27. This announcement set market expectations for potential index inclusions or deletions, impacting MicroStrategy's delisting probabilities.
MSCI Pauses Crypto Exclusions, Retaining MicroStrategy in Global Indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%34%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with its proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) from its indexes, choosing instead to pause exclusions and conduct a broader review. This decision caused the probability of MicroStrategy being delisted to plunge.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI officially paused its proposal to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes. This announcement alleviated fears of imminent delisting and caused a sharp drop in the market's probability of MicroStrategy being removed by March 31, 2026.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled for February 10
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced that changes to its indexes, including additions and deletions, would be implemented as of February 27, 2026, with the announcement on February 10. Market participants awaited the review results to confirm MicroStrategy's status, influencing market prices during early February.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Results Will Be Published on February 10
June 30 plunges to 22%40%
MSCI scheduled the announcement of its February 2026 Index Review for February 10, 2026, which would reveal whether MicroStrategy would be excluded under proposed digital asset treasury rules.
MSCI Schedules February 2026 Index Review Announcement
June 30 plunges to 21%41%
MSCI announced that the results of its February quarterly index review would be released on February 10, 2026, with changes taking effect at the close of February 27, 2026.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy's index inclusion amid Bitcoin holdings risk
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, including MicroStrategy, raising concerns about potential removal from MSCI World and USA indexes. This initiated market uncertainty and price volatility reflecting the risk of forced outflows.
MSCI reverses proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury companies from indexes
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced it would maintain inclusion of DATs such as MicroStrategy in its global equity indexes after significant investor feedback, reversing an earlier plan to exclude them. This decision temporarily boosted market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 72%20%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, pressuring the stock price. This warning underscored market concerns about the impact of MSCI's potential exclusion decision.
MSCI pauses exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies from indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%58%
MSCI decided to pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies and undertake a broader review of how companies with significant crypto holdings are classified, preserving current index access for firms like MicroStrategy. This announcement caused a sharp drop in the perceived probability of MicroStrategy's delisting.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows. This warning underscored the market impact of MSCI's potential exclusion decision and contributed to price volatility in MicroStrategy shares.
MicroStrategy faces potential MSCI index exclusion risk due to Bitcoin holdings
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MicroStrategy risked removal from MSCI indexes because its Bitcoin holdings dominated its balance sheet, triggering MSCI's review. JPMorgan warned of $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows if removal occurred, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
MSCI announces consultation on excluding digital asset treasury companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes, raising concerns about potential removal and triggering market speculation about forced outflows and stock price impacts.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 34%18%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's exclusion from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced selling by passive funds, increasing market volatility and pressuring MicroStrategy's stock price.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy will remain in MSCI indexes during February 2026 review
MSCI announced that companies with significant digital asset treasuries, including MicroStrategy, would remain in its benchmark indexes during the February 2026 review. This confirmation reassured investors and maintained exposure to firms integrating digital assets, supporting MicroStrategy's index inclusion probabilities.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review retains MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 41%17%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review schedule, confirming that the upcoming quarterly rebalance would retain MicroStrategy. The reassurance lifted the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 outcome.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 41%8%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund selling, intensifying market concerns and impacting MSTR stock price.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review retaining MicroStrategy in indexes
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review results confirming that Digital Asset Treasury Companies, including MicroStrategy, would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes. This announcement alleviated fears of delisting and caused positive market reactions for MicroStrategy-related securities.
If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market.
An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...MicroStrategy stock declines amid legal investigation and crypto market volatility
MicroStrategy faced increased selling pressure due to a securities class action investigation and broader crypto market weakness, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the company's financial health and index status.
No official MSCI announcement on MicroStrategy delisting by end of analysis window
December 31 drops to 39%8%
As of June 24, 2026, no official MSCI communication or credible consensus reporting confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or USA Index, indicating the market's final resolution remains uncertain but leans towards retention.
MSCI announces 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results, no MicroStrategy removal
June 30 drops to 0%6%
MSCI released its 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results on June 23, 2026, confirming that MicroStrategy remains included in the MSCI World and USA indexes with no removal or transfer announced, solidifying the company's index status through mid-2026.
MSCI announces results of 2026 Market Classification Review with no mention of MicroStrategy removal
MSCI announced the results of its 2026 Market Classification Review on June 23, 2026, with no indication of MicroStrategy being removed or reclassified from its indexes, signaling continued inclusion and ongoing broader consultation on digital asset treasury companies.
MSCI releases 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results confirming MicroStrategy inclusion
June 30 dips to 0%1%
MSCI's 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review results confirmed that MicroStrategy remains included in the MSCI World and USA indexes with no removal or transfer announced, solidifying the company's index status through mid-2026.
MSCI Announces 2026 Market Classification Review Results
December 31 dips to 41%3%
MSCI released the results of its 2026 Market Classification Review, which included considerations relevant to companies like MicroStrategy holding large digital asset treasuries. This announcement influenced market expectations about potential index reclassifications or removals.
CEO Phong Le purchases 11,000 shares of Strategy Inc. on June 22, 2026
June 30 dips to 0%1%
CEO Phong Le bought 11,000 shares of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in a disclosed insider transaction. The purchase was interpreted as confidence in the company’s continued MSCI inclusion and helped stabilise the “June 30” market price after a brief dip.
MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le purchases shares signaling confidence after MSCI index retention
June 30 rises to 3%2%
MicroStrategy's President and CEO Phong Le purchased shares on June 22, 2026, marking insider confidence in the company's future and its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes despite ongoing market volatility, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy remains included in indexes but freezes index weighting growth
June 30 drops to 43%6%
MSCI announced it would not exclude digital asset treasury companies including MicroStrategy from its global equity indexes but imposed constraints by freezing the number of shares and inclusion factors, preventing index weighting growth. This decision preserved MicroStrategy's index seat but limited expansion, reflecting ongoing scrutiny of Bitcoin-heavy corporate treasuries and stabilizing market expectations.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies
June 30 dips to 0%1%
MSCI released its Global Market Accessibility and Classification Review results, reaffirming the pause on excluding DAT companies. The clarification further reduced delisting fears, driving the Yes‑price for June‑30 close to zero.
MicroStrategy director Jarrod Patten sells $9 million in shares amid stock pressure
December 31 jumps to 39%8%
Strategy director Jarrod Patten sold nearly $9 million worth of company stock over several months, reflecting insider selling amid pressure on the company's preferred securities and concerns about dividend funding. This insider activity added to bearish sentiment but did not affect MSCI index inclusion.
MicroStrategy CEO signals confidence amid MSCI index inclusion uncertainty
December 31 drops to 40%13%
MicroStrategy's President and CEO Phong Le purchased shares on June 22, 2026, signaling confidence in the company's future and its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes despite ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.
Market prices drop to zero for MicroStrategy removal from MSCI USA Index by June 30
June 30 drops to 0%5%
By mid-June 2026, the market price for MicroStrategy being removed from the MSCI USA Index by June 30 dropped to zero, indicating strong market consensus that removal would not occur by that date. This reflected the absence of any official MSCI removal announcement or credible reports confirming such action.
MSCI announces 2026 Global Market Accessibility and Classification Review results
December 31 drops to 45%9%
MSCI released results of its 2026 reviews on June 18 and June 23, which could impact index inclusions. Market awaited official announcements regarding MicroStrategy's status, but no confirmed removal was reported by June 14.
Market confidence stabilizes on MicroStrategy MSCI index retention
December 31 surges to 53%21%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, market confidence stabilized with prices reflecting a reduced probability of delisting by March 31, 2026. This outcome confirmed the company's continued inclusion in MSCI benchmarks for the near term.
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal by June 10, 2026
December 31 drops to 60%5%
As of June 10, 2026, no official MSCI communication confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from MSCI World or USA indexes, indicating the market's resolution remains pending or negative for removal.
MSCI announces upcoming consultation on non‑operating companies
June 30 rises to 7%2%
MSCI issued a formal statement that it will conduct a broader consultation on “non‑operating companies” later in 2026, leaving open the possibility of future exclusion for MicroStrategy. The uncertainty pushed the market’s “Yes” probability back up slightly.
Strategy Inc. Stockholders Approve Proposal 5 at Annual Meeting
December 31 plunges to 43%16%
Stockholders approved Proposal 5 at the virtual annual meeting, amending corporate terms and resolving some governance uncertainties, which helped stabilize the stock and index outlook.
MSCI notes September quarterly review; no new delisting plans announced
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MSCI issued a routine reminder that its next quarterly review would occur in September, with no indication of upcoming delistings, which marginally steadied the market.
Strategy shareholders approve shifting STRC preferred stock dividends from monthly to semi-monthly
At the 2026 Annual Meeting, Strategy shareholders approved Proposal 5 to change dividend payments on the STRC preferred stock from monthly to semi-monthly, aiming to improve liquidity, reduce reinvestment lag, and stabilize the stock price. The first semi-monthly payment is expected in July 2026.
Strategy buys 1,550 Bitcoin, boosting cash reserves to $1 billion
Following the Bitcoin sale, Strategy resumed accumulation by purchasing 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing total holdings and cash reserves. This move was seen as an effort to restore market confidence and reaffirm the company's long-term Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy shareholders approve key proposals at annual meeting
June 30 dips to 1%1%
At the June 8 annual meeting, MicroStrategy shareholders approved important corporate governance proposals, signaling stability and ongoing operations, which helped maintain confidence in the company's index inclusion status.
MicroStrategy Q2 earnings note unchanged MSCI status
June 30 dips to 1%1%
MicroStrategy released a quarterly earnings brief noting steady Bitcoin holdings and no change in MSCI status, giving the market a final minor adjustment in the ‘Yes’ price.
MicroStrategy remains included in MSCI indexes through March 31, 2026, per official MSCI communications
December 31 surges to 61%26%
Official MSCI communications confirmed that MicroStrategy was not removed from the MSCI World or USA indexes by March 31, 2026, resolving the market question with a 'No' outcome for delisting.
Polymarket assigns 63% probability of MSCI delisting by year-end 2026
December 31 surges to 62%36%
Polymarket prediction markets indicated a 63% chance of MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI indexes by the end of 2026, reflecting heightened market concern after the Bitcoin sale and financial losses.
MicroStrategy stock rallies after MSCI confirms continued index inclusion
December 31 surges to 61%26%
Following MSCI's reaffirmation of MicroStrategy's inclusion in its indexes, the stock rallied significantly, reflecting market relief and confidence in the company's index status.
Prediction market assigns 63% probability of MSCI delisting by year-end
June 30 dips to 1%2%
Following Strategy's Bitcoin sale and Q1 2026 results, prediction markets increased the probability of MSCI delisting to 63%, reflecting heightened investor concern about forced passive-fund selling and the company's financial health.
Polymarket Delisting Probability for MicroStrategy Climbs to 63%
December 31 dips to 61%1%
Following the Bitcoin sale disclosure, market participants priced in a 63% probability of MSCI delisting by the end of 2026, reflecting heightened long-term concerns despite near-term safety.
MicroStrategy Stock Plunges After Bitcoin Sale Announcement
June 30 drops to 1%10%
MicroStrategy stock plummeted 18.4% after the company disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of its Bitcoin treasury strategy.
MicroStrategy remains included in MSCI indexes as of June 2026
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal or transfer from MSCI World or USA indexes has been made by June 4, 2026, indicating the company remains included in these indexes, resolving the market to 'No' for June 30 outcome.
Polymarket Delisting Odds Surge to 63% Following Bitcoin Sale
December 31 surges to 60%25%
Following the Bitcoin sale, analysts and traders heavily debated the future of Strategy Inc. Polymarket traders priced in a 63% probability of MSCI index delisting by year-end, causing the December 31 contract to spike to its highest level in the window.
Market reflects bearish sentiment on MicroStrategy amid Bitcoin sale and MSCI delisting odds
December 31 jumps to 43%11%
Following the Bitcoin sale and shareholder vote anticipation, bearish sentiment intensified with Polymarket assigning a 63% probability to MSCI delisting by year-end 2026, impacting stock price and market outlook.
MicroStrategy director purchases shares signaling confidence after MSCI index inclusion maintained
December 31 surges to 63%28%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, a company director purchased shares, signaling insider confidence and positively influencing market sentiment near the analysis window's end.
MicroStrategy Stock Plunges Following First Bitcoin Sale Since 2022
December 31 plunges to 29%36%
MicroStrategy (Strategy) sold 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, sparking bearish sentiment and raising concerns about the sustainability of its funding model and index inclusion.
MicroStrategy submits formal appeal to MSCI to retain index inclusion
MicroStrategy filed a formal letter with MSCI urging the provider to keep the company in the index, echoing earlier arguments. The move kept the market’s Yes‑probability low after the June‑30 pause announcement.
Strategy Inc. Sells Bitcoin for First Time Since 2022 to Fund Dividends
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
Strategy Inc. sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million to fund preferred stock dividends, raising concerns among bears and increasing speculation about its index status and future treasury operations.
Polymarket’s MSCI‑delisting odds spike to 63 % after Bitcoin sale
June 30 rises to 2%1%
Polymarket’s probability for MSCI delisting peaked at 63 % on June 4, reflecting heightened speculation after the Bitcoin sale, and then collapsed as the market digested the news.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 64%29%
MSCI decided not to proceed with excluding companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes, deferring the decision and maintaining current inclusions. This announcement significantly reduced fears of forced selling and index removal, causing a surge in MicroStrategy-related market prices.
No official MSCI announcement of MicroStrategy removal by June 3, 2026
As of early June 2026, no official MSCI communication confirmed MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or USA Index, leaving market uncertainty about the final outcome.
Market spike on speculation of imminent MSCI decision on MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 63%28%
Early June saw a sharp price increase as traders anticipated a possible MSCI announcement regarding MicroStrategy's index status, reflecting heightened uncertainty and potential for removal or reclassification.
MicroStrategy stock plunges after Bitcoin sale announcement
December 31 plunges to 26%28%
Following the Bitcoin sale disclosure, MicroStrategy's stock dropped significantly, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial health and potential MSCI delisting.
MicroStrategy sells small amount of Bitcoin amid market pressures
June 30 rises to 5%4%
MicroStrategy disclosed selling 32 BTC, a tiny fraction of its holdings, to cover preferred stock dividends. This move sparked market speculation about the company's financial health but did not trigger MSCI index removal.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
December 31 drops to 28%5%
MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, 2026, to fund preferred stock dividend distributions, marking its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. The sale was small but symbolically significant, signaling a shift in corporate treasury management and causing short-term market volatility.
Strategy Inc. Discloses First Bitcoin Sale Since 2022 to Fund Dividends
December 31 surges to 62%27%
Strategy Inc. disclosed a minor sale of 32 BTC to cover mandatory cash dividends on its preferred stock. Although representing a tiny fraction of its balance sheet, the first sale in years triggered bearish sentiment and renewed concerns about long-term index eligibility.
MicroStrategy Discloses Small Bitcoin Sale to Cover Preferred Stock Dividends
December 31 surges to 60%25%
MicroStrategy disclosed a microscopic sale of 32 BTC to cover routine cash dividends on its preferred stock. This rare sale of Bitcoin triggered market discussions but did not alter its core index status.
MicroStrategy discloses sale of 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends
MicroStrategy disclosed a small Bitcoin sale to cover mandatory cash dividends on preferred stock, representing a negligible portion of its balance sheet. This event was closely watched but did not trigger MSCI removal, though it influenced market volatility.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
June 30 drops to 43%6%
MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, 2026, generating $2.5 million. This was the company's first Bitcoin sale since 2022, signaling a shift in treasury management strategy amid financial pressures. The sale was minor relative to total holdings but contributed to market volatility and investor concern about the company's financial health.
MSCI Names New Chief Technology Officer Amid Ongoing Index Review
MSCI announced a new CTO appointment, signaling ongoing corporate developments but no direct impact on MicroStrategy's index status, maintaining market uncertainty about delisting outcomes.
MicroStrategy Sells 32 Bitcoin to Fund Preferred Stock Dividends
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 to fund preferred-stock distributions, raising concerns about its capital model and triggering a drop in stock price.
MicroStrategy Discloses First Bitcoin Sale in Years to Fund Dividends
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
MicroStrategy announced the sale of 32 BTC to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022, which triggered a sharp drop in stock price and renewed delisting speculation.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin, first sale in years, amid ongoing MSCI delisting speculation
On June 1, 2026, MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, its first Bitcoin sale in years, to fund preferred stock dividends. This event occurred amid persistent market speculation and a 63% probability assigned by prediction markets of MSCI delisting by year-end, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about index inclusion risks.
MicroStrategy sells 32 BTC to fund preferred‑stock dividends
June 30 drops to 1%6%
MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC (0.004 % of its treasury) to fund preferred dividends, triggering a sharp sell‑off and pushing the ‘Yes’ probability to its lowest point.
Strategy sells 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, first sale since 2022
Strategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, 2026, to fund distributions on its preferred stock. This sale, though small relative to total holdings, broke the company's long-standing 'never sell' policy and caused market concern, impacting stock and Bitcoin prices.
Strategy Inc. sells 32 Bitcoin, first sale in years, sparking market concern
June 30 drops to 3%7%
On June 1, 2026, Strategy Inc. disclosed the sale of 32 BTC to fund preferred stock dividends, marking its first Bitcoin sale in years. This move was perceived as a tactical pivot amid financial pressures and triggered a sharp decline in stock price and increased speculation about MSCI delisting risk.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, first sale since 2022
MicroStrategy's sale of 32 BTC to cover dividend payments marked a break from its 'never sell' pledge, causing market concern about liquidity and financial pressures amid MSCI index uncertainty.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy will stay in its indexes
June 30 rises to 2%1%
MSCI issued a final statement that it will keep MicroStrategy in the MSCI World and USA indexes for now, effectively ending the removal speculation and causing the ‘Yes’ probability to fall to near‑zero by early June.
MSCI implements May 2026 Index Review with no removal of MicroStrategy
June 30 rises to 5%4%
The May 2026 Index Review was implemented on May 29, with no official MSCI announcement or credible reports indicating MicroStrategy's removal or transfer from the MSCI World or MSCI USA Index.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review implemented with no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 63%28%
MSCI implemented its May 2026 Index Review changes on May 29, 2026, which included numerous additions and deletions but did not remove or transfer MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or USA indexes, maintaining its index status through the review period.
Renewed market optimism on MicroStrategy's MSCI index inclusion
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
By late May, market prices gradually increased as investors speculated that MicroStrategy might retain its MSCI index inclusion, possibly due to ongoing consultations and the company's continued Bitcoin purchases, which could influence MSCI's classification.
Polymarket Traders Price Rising Odds of MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
Speculation mounted that MicroStrategy would sell some of its Bitcoin holdings to fund preferred stock dividends, following hints from Michael Saylor during the Q1 earnings call. This raised concerns about the company's premium and index status.
Crypto podcast predicts near‑zero chance of MicroStrategy MSCI removal after pause
June 30 dips to 1%2%
A popular crypto‑news podcast analyzed the MSCI pause and suggested the probability of removal was now below 5 %, further nudging the “Yes” odds down to 1 % by 2026‑06‑09.
MicroStrategy sells 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million, first sale since 2022
June 30 jumps to 6%5%
MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, 2026, its first Bitcoin sale in nearly four years, signaling a strategic shift to occasionally sell Bitcoin to fund dividends and manage liabilities, which rattled market sentiment but did not affect MSCI index status.
MicroStrategy reiterates lobbying of MSCI to preserve index status
December 31 jumps to 31%5%
MicroStrategy publicly reiterated its lobbying effort with MSCI, emphasizing that its core software business justifies index inclusion. The reminder revived investor doubts, causing a modest rise in the “Yes” probability.
MicroStrategy Reports $11.2 Billion Bitcoin Loss, Sparking Delisting Speculation
December 31 dips to 26%2%
MicroStrategy's reported $11.2 billion Bitcoin loss intensified market fears about its financial stability and potential MSCI index removal, reflected in increased delisting odds in the December 31 contract.
MicroStrategy earnings call: Saylor says index removal risk is “overblown”
June 30 drops to 2%7%
MicroStrategy released a quarterly earnings call transcript in which Saylor downplayed removal risk, causing a brief dip in “Yes” confidence to 2 % on 2026‑05‑15.
Prediction market shows 27.5 % chance of MSCI delisting for MicroStrategy
June 30 drops to 7%5%
A 24/7 Wall St. article highlighted the market’s 27.5 % probability of MSCI delisting, reinforcing the narrative and causing a modest rise in the ‘Yes’ odds.
Senate Banking Committee Passes CLARITY Act to Regulate Digital Assets
The Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 to clear the CLARITY Act, which could reshape how federal regulators view corporate digital asset holdings and potentially impact future index eligibility.
MSCI announces May 2026 Index Review results with no removal of MicroStrategy
MSCI announced the results of the May 2026 Index Review effective May 29, 2026, confirming no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes, thus maintaining its index inclusion status through the period.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled
MSCI announced the upcoming May 2026 Index Review results, which could impact index constituents including MicroStrategy, though no removal was indicated at this time.
MSCI Releases May 2026 Index Review Additions and Deletions
MSCI announced its scheduled May 2026 Index Review rebalancing. While MicroStrategy remained in the index due to the earlier pause on digital asset treasury exclusions, the scheduled review date kept traders highly focused on index composition.
MSCI announces May 2026 Index Review results with no removal of MicroStrategy
June 30 plunges to 0%16%
MSCI released the results of its May 2026 Index Review confirming no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes, maintaining its index inclusion status through late May 2026 and reducing market concerns about delisting.
MSCI May 2026 Index Review confirms no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World or USA indexes
June 30 surges to 49%27%
MSCI published the results of its May 2026 Index Review, which included no removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA Index. This official confirmation maintained MicroStrategy's index inclusion status, further reducing market concerns about delisting and supporting the 'No' resolution for the June 30 outcome.
Market prices sharply drop amid renewed concerns over MicroStrategy's index status
December 31 plunges to 26%15%
Despite MSCI's earlier decision, market volatility and Bitcoin price fluctuations caused renewed investor uncertainty about MicroStrategy's index inclusion, leading to a sharp price decline in early May 2026.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 18%46%
MSCI officially announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes and undertake a broader review, significantly reducing the market's perceived risk of delisting and causing a sharp drop in delisting probability.
MicroStrategy reports $12.54 billion Q1 loss and signals potential Bitcoin sales
December 31 surges to 33%15%
MicroStrategy reported a $12.54 billion net loss for Q1 2026 due to Bitcoin markdowns and indicated a strategic shift to potentially sell Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, breaking its previous 'never sell' policy. This shift increased market uncertainty but did not affect MSCI index inclusion status.
MicroStrategy sells 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends, signaling financial pressure
June 30 drops to 3%5%
MicroStrategy executed its first Bitcoin sale in years, offloading 32 BTC to cover dividend payments on preferred shares. This move raised concerns about liquidity and potential MSCI index removal, negatively impacting market confidence.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
December 31 plunges to 28%23%
MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor engaged directly with MSCI to argue that the company is an operating software business using Bitcoin strategically, aiming to prevent removal from MSCI World and USA indices and preserve passive investment inflows.
MicroStrategy reports $12.5 billion Q1 2026 loss driven by Bitcoin markdown
MicroStrategy posted a record net loss primarily due to a $14.46 billion unrealized markdown on its Bitcoin holdings, highlighting the volatility risk that factors into MSCI's index inclusion considerations.
MicroStrategy Stock Price Reacts to MSCI Index Delisting Speculation
December 31 plunges to 34%17%
Following JPMorgan's report and ongoing MSCI consultations, MicroStrategy's stock price experienced a notable drop, reflecting increased market concern over potential index removal and its financial implications.
MicroStrategy tokenized stock gains momentum despite past exchange delistings
December 31 dips to 27%2%
The tokenized stock of MicroStrategy (MSTRX) showed strong performance and new futures products, attracting momentum traders and indicating market interest, though past delistings on crypto exchanges highlighted regulatory challenges.
FTSE Russell hints at aligning with MSCI on crypto‑heavy company exclusions
December 31 surges to 51%20%
Rumors that FTSE Russell might adopt MSCI’s DATCO policy raised concerns of coordinated exclusion, pushing the “Yes” odds back up to 51 % on 2026‑05‑02.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
December 31 surges to 51%33%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as distinct from investment funds. This lobbying aimed to preserve passive investment inflows critical to the company's capital model.
Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over MicroStrategy MSCI index status
December 31 surges to 52%33%
Despite no official MSCI announcement, market prices for MicroStrategy's removal from the December 31 outcome fluctuated significantly, reflecting investor uncertainty and speculation about the company's index status amid Bitcoin volatility and MSCI's review process.
MSCI World and USA Indexes Show Volatility Amid MicroStrategy Financial Pressures
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Market volatility increased in late April 2026 as MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin losses and share dilution raised concerns about its eligibility for MSCI indexes, reflected in sharp price swings and increased delisting probability in the December 31 contract.
MicroStrategy stock briefly rallies amid speculation of Bitcoin purchase and index inclusion
December 31 surges to 54%36%
MicroStrategy's stock price saw a temporary rally due to speculation about another Bitcoin purchase and hopes of maintaining MSCI index inclusion, reflecting investor optimism despite ongoing risks.
MicroStrategy stock plunges amid Bitcoin sale and MSCI delisting fears
December 31 jumps to 29%11%
Following MicroStrategy's first Bitcoin sale since 2022 to fund dividends, the stock dropped significantly, fueling market speculation about MSCI delisting risks and increasing bearish sentiment reflected in prediction market probabilities.
MSCI announces upcoming free-float methodology revision for May 2026
December 31 dips to 18%1%
MSCI announced a revision to its free-float methodology effective May 2026, which could lead to future index composition changes, keeping market participants cautious about MicroStrategy's index status.
MicroStrategy Discloses Bitcoin Sale to Cover Preferred Stock Dividends
June 30 plunges to 1%52%
MicroStrategy disclosed a sale of 32 BTC worth $2.5 million to cover routine, mandatory cash dividends on its preferred stock, signaling a shift away from Bitcoin accumulation and triggering bearish sentiment.
Market reacts to renewed concerns over MicroStrategy's MSCI index status amid Bitcoin volatility
December 31 surges to 53%34%
Investor sentiment fluctuated as Bitcoin price volatility and ongoing MSCI review of digital asset treasury companies kept uncertainty high, causing sharp price swings in MicroStrategy's stock and affecting market expectations for index inclusion.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indices
December 31 surges to 52%34%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indices could trigger $2.8 billion in forced selling by passive funds, amplifying downward pressure on the stock amid Bitcoin volatility.
MicroStrategy Rebounds as MSCI Decision Alleviates Immediate Delisting Fears
December 31 surges to 54%36%
Following the official reprieve from MSCI, market confidence stabilized, and MicroStrategy shares rallied as the threat of immediate forced passive fund liquidations was removed.
MicroStrategy reports first Bitcoin sale in years amid dividend pressures
December 31 surges to 51%32%
MicroStrategy disclosed selling 32 BTC to cover preferred stock dividends, signaling financial strain. This event raised concerns about the company's stability and potential impact on its MSCI index status, causing price fluctuations.
MSCI Spares MicroStrategy and Other Digital Asset Treasury Companies from Immediate Index Exclusion
June 30 surges to 49%45%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with a proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) like MicroStrategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes during its upcoming reviews, though it froze their index footprint and deferred size-segment migrations.
MSCI Pauses Crypto Exclusions, Retaining MicroStrategy in Global Indexes
June 30 plunges to 5%44%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with its proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes during the review, choosing instead to launch a broader classification review.
Market reacts to ongoing MSCI review with increased volatility in MicroStrategy shares
December 31 surges to 50%31%
Uncertainty over MSCI's final decision led to heightened volatility in MicroStrategy's stock, reflecting investor concerns about potential forced outflows and index removal.
MicroStrategy stock rebounds on optimism after MSCI defers exclusion decision
December 31 surges to 54%36%
Following MSCI's decision to maintain MicroStrategy in its indexes, the stock price rebounded significantly, reflecting restored investor confidence and reduced fears of forced selling.
MSCI Confirms Retention of Digital Asset Treasury Companies in February Index Review
June 30 surges to 47%36%
MSCI officially decided not to proceed with its proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes, choosing instead to pause exclusions and launch a broader review.
Market speculation intensifies on MSCI's pending decision on MicroStrategy index status
December 31 surges to 53%35%
In late April 2026, market prices surged as investors speculated that MSCI might move to exclude or reclassify MicroStrategy due to its large Bitcoin holdings, reflecting fears of forced passive fund selling. This speculation caused a sharp increase in the probability pricing for the December 31 outcome.
MSCI consultation on digital asset treasury companies closes without immediate removal decision
December 31 surges to 51%33%
MSCI closed its consultation period on December 31, 2025, but as of late April 2026, no official removal or transfer of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes was announced, sustaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
Strategy Inc. Expands Bitcoin Treasury to Over 818,000 BTC with New Purchase
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announced a fresh purchase of 3,273 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. This continued aggressive accumulation reinforced its status as a digital asset treasury company, keeping index inclusion risks in focus.
Strategy Inc. Acquires 3,273 Bitcoin to Expand Treasury Reserves
December 31 surges to 51%33%
Strategy Inc. continued its aggressive treasury strategy by purchasing an additional 3,273 BTC, bringing its total holdings to over 818,000 BTC. This purchase temporarily boosted optimism in the firm's strategy, causing the December 31 delisting probability to drop to 18% as the market stabilized.
MSCI continues consultation on classification of Bitcoin-heavy companies
MSCI maintained its review process on how to classify companies like MicroStrategy with large Bitcoin treasuries, delaying any exclusion decisions. This ongoing uncertainty influenced market pricing on MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI announces free‑float rounding update; no delisting of DAT firms
June 30 drops to 12%5%
MSCI reiterated that its revised free‑float methodology would apply on June 1, hinting at possible weight changes but confirming no delisting, which temporarily eased market fears.
JPMorgan Research Report Warns of MicroStrategy Index Removal Risk
June 30 surges to 50%42%
JPMorgan published a research report highlighting the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes, warning of potential $2.8 billion in forced sell-offs. This report triggered significant backlash from the Bitcoin community and increased market volatility around MicroStrategy's index status.
Bitcoin climbs 12 % on U.S. regulatory optimism
December 31 jumps to 51%13%
Bitcoin rallied 12 % after positive regulatory news in the U.S., temporarily easing MSCI‑related concerns and lifting MSTR’s ‘Yes’ price modestly.
MicroStrategy announces additional Bitcoin acquisition, boosting treasury balance
December 31 drops to 18%5%
MicroStrategy issued a press release highlighting a new Bitcoin purchase, temporarily boosting optimism that the firm’s treasury strategy remained strong, lifting the “Yes” probability to 18 % on 2026‑04‑25.
Market prices for MicroStrategy delisting fall to lows amid no MSCI removal news
December 31 drops to 18%12%
By late April 2026, market prices for MicroStrategy being delisted from MSCI indexes dropped significantly, reflecting the absence of any official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer, indicating market consensus that delisting was unlikely by March 31, 2026.
MicroStrategy announces large Bitcoin purchase amid MSCI index inclusion debate
MicroStrategy purchased an additional 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion, reinforcing its Bitcoin treasury strategy during ongoing MSCI index inclusion discussions, which influenced market perceptions of the company's risk profile.
MicroStrategy posts $12.5 bn Q1 loss, stock slides 25 % YTD
June 30 drops to 14%9%
MicroStrategy’s Q1‑2026 earnings release showed a $12.5 bn net loss and a 25 % YTD stock decline, reviving concerns over its viability and nudging the market probability upward.
MicroStrategy Files SEC 8-K Filing with Updated Bitcoin Holdings
June 30 drops to 9%9%
MicroStrategy filed its SEC 8-K filing on April 13, 2026, disclosing its Bitcoin holdings of 780,897 BTC, purchased at approximately $59.02 billion, which provided transparency about the company's treasury strategy and valuation.
Market confidence in MicroStrategy's MSCI inclusion collapses amid ongoing uncertainty
December 31 drops to 18%14%
By mid-April, market prices for MicroStrategy's delisting probability dropped sharply, reflecting persistent doubts about its index status despite no official MSCI removal announcement, indicating market skepticism.
MicroStrategy faces MSCI index removal risk due to Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet
December 31 drops to 18%5%
MicroStrategy's substantial Bitcoin holdings, exceeding 25% of total assets, triggered MSCI's review for potential exclusion from major indexes, raising concerns about forced passive fund outflows estimated at $2.8 billion. This news heightened market uncertainty about MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy index eligibility ongoing ahead of January 2026 decision
December 31 drops to 17%6%
MSCI was reviewing MicroStrategy's eligibility for inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet, with a final decision expected January 15, 2026. This consultation raised market concerns about potential forced outflows from passive funds.
SEC Unveils 'Reg Crypto' Providing Comprehensive Legal Framework
December 31 drops to 19%13%
The SEC introduced Regulation Crypto Assets under Chairman Paul Atkins, establishing a safe-harbor exemption and reclassifying most digital tokens as non-securities, which boosted institutional confidence in crypto-heavy firms.
MSCI announces broader review of classification for companies with significant crypto holdings
December 31 dips to 18%1%
MSCI announced it would pause exclusion plans and conduct a broader review of how companies with significant digital asset holdings are classified, preserving current index access for Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy.
MSCI announces pause on excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from indexes
December 31 jumps to 32%14%
MSCI announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes and undertake a broader review of classification criteria. This decision preserved MicroStrategy's index inclusion and reduced delisting risk in the near term.
MicroStrategy reports large Bitcoin holdings amid MSCI inclusion
December 31 rises to 32%2%
MicroStrategy reported substantial Bitcoin holdings and remained the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, reinforcing its identity as a Digital Asset Treasury Company. This supported its continued inclusion in MSCI indexes as of March 2026.
MSCI announces no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World and USA indices
June 30 dips to 12%3%
On March 31, 2026, MSCI announced its decision to reclassify Greece but did not remove MicroStrategy from its indices, confirming the company's continued inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices. This announcement reinforced market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status through the first quarter of 2026.
MSCI announces no removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI World and USA indices
December 31 rises to 32%2%
On March 31, 2026, MSCI announced its decision to reclassify Greece but did not remove MicroStrategy from its indices, confirming the company's continued inclusion in MSCI World and USA indices. This announcement reinforced market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status through the first quarter of 2026.
MSCI Reviews Index Methodology for Crypto-Asset Companies
As of early March 2026, MSCI was reportedly reviewing its inclusion criteria to potentially exclude companies whose primary business is owning cryptocurrency assets, raising concerns about MicroStrategy's potential removal from major indices.
MicroStrategy shares drop amid Bitcoin price decline, no MSCI delisting
June 30 drops to 12%6%
MicroStrategy shares fell 6.5% following Bitcoin breaking below key support levels, reflecting the company's leveraged Bitcoin exposure. However, no MSCI announcement indicated removal from indexes, and the drop was attributed to market volatility rather than index changes.
MicroStrategy announces significant Bitcoin purchase amid ongoing MSCI inclusion
December 31 rises to 30%3%
MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by purchasing 22,337 coins, reinforcing its digital asset treasury strategy while remaining included in MSCI indexes, supporting investor confidence.
MicroStrategy pushes back on MSCI exclusion, cites software core
December 31 rises to 38%3%
MicroStrategy publicly reiterated its lobbying effort, emphasizing that its software business, not a crypto fund, should keep it eligible for MSCI, nudging the ‘Yes’ price slightly upward.
MSCI freezes share‑count adjustments for DATCOs including MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 42%9%
MSCI published a follow‑up clarification that, while it will keep MicroStrategy in the current indexes, it will freeze any future increases to its share‑count factor, limiting future passive inflows. The market interpreted this as a partial setback, nudging the “Yes” probability upward slightly.
MicroStrategy's share dilution and Bitcoin purchases raise index inclusion concerns
December 31 drops to 27%6%
MicroStrategy's ongoing equity dilution and large Bitcoin acquisitions raised questions about its classification and eligibility for MSCI indexes, contributing to price volatility and uncertainty about delisting.
JPMorgan reissues $2.8 B outflow estimate for potential MSCI removal
June 30 rises to 2%2%
JPMorgan reiterated its outflow estimate in a research note, reminding markets of the €2.8 B risk. The reminder coincided with a modest rise in the Yes‑price for the June‑30 outcome.
Market reacts negatively to MicroStrategy's financial losses and delisting concerns
December 31 plunges to 27%57%
Following MicroStrategy's Q4 2025 earnings report showing significant losses and ongoing concerns about MSCI delisting risk, market confidence dropped sharply, reflecting fears about the company's financial health and index status.
Analyst downplays MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%31%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops, which helped moderate market fears and stabilize prices for the December 31 outcome.
MSCI's clarification on index inclusion boosts MicroStrategy stock amid Bitcoin price stall
December 31 surges to 58%26%
MSCI's clarification removing the overhang for digital asset treasury companies led to a rally in MicroStrategy shares, even as Bitcoin prices stalled. This event temporarily improved investor confidence in MicroStrategy's index status and its stock performance.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 27%29%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk of significant capital outflows from MicroStrategy if MSCI excludes it due to Bitcoin holdings, underscoring market concerns and influencing price volatility in early 2026.
Analyst downplays MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy amid Bitcoin price rise
December 31 surges to 84%51%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops, but the stock price not rising with Bitcoin. This reassured investors about MSCI inclusion risks.
JPMorgan warns of significant stock selloff risk if MicroStrategy delisted from MSCI
December 31 plunges to 27%28%
JPMorgan analysts flagged that exclusion of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could lead to substantial valuation pressure due to forced selling by passive index funds, increasing market concerns about potential delisting.
JPMorgan warns of risk to MicroStrategy stock if MSCI excludes it from indexes
December 31 drops to 27%6%
JPMorgan analysts publicly warned that exclusion of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could lead to significant valuation pressure due to passive fund ownership, raising market concerns about potential delisting despite MSCI's retention decision.
Analyst Jeff Dorman Downplays MSCI Delisting Risk for MicroStrategy
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, publicly stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes is not the biggest threat to the company, which helped moderate market concerns about imminent delisting.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8B-$8.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes could trigger billions in forced selling by passive index funds, intensifying market concerns about the company's index status and Bitcoin exposure.
MicroStrategy announces weekly Bitcoin purchase amid rising Bitcoin prices
December 31 surges to 84%51%
MicroStrategy announced a weekly Bitcoin purchase as Bitcoin prices rose, signaling continued commitment to its Bitcoin treasury strategy. This announcement briefly increased market optimism about MicroStrategy's stability and index inclusion.
Analysts warn MSCI could broaden review to all non‑operating firms in March
December 31 drops to 27%14%
A speculative report suggested MSCI might expand its review to “non‑operating” companies in March, briefly reviving removal fears and causing a temporary dip to 27 % on 2026‑03‑06.
Arca Analyst Downplays MicroStrategy MSCI Delisting and Bitcoin Crash Risks
December 31 plunges to 27%31%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, pushed back against concerns that MicroStrategy faces meaningful downside from potential MSCI index removal, stabilizing market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of multibillion‑dollar sell‑off if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 84%43%
JPMorgan analysts warned that a potential MSCI delisting could trigger an $8.8 bn sell‑off, reigniting market concern and pushing the ‘Yes’ probability back up sharply.
Arca CIO says MSCI removal isn’t the biggest risk for MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%57%
Arca’s CIO downplayed delisting risk, stating the biggest threat is the stock not rising with Bitcoin. The comment softened sentiment, pulling the ‘Yes’ probability down.
Analyst Jeff Dorman downplays impact of potential MSCI delisting on MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 55%28%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that removal from MSCI indexes would be marginally bad for MicroStrategy's stock but irrelevant for Bitcoin, suggesting limited fundamental impact and tempering market fears.
Arca Chief Investment Officer Downplays MicroStrategy MSCI Delisting Risks
December 31 drops to 27%7%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, publicly pushed back on concerns that MicroStrategy would face meaningful downside from a potential MSCI index removal, stabilizing market sentiment.
Analyst downplays risk of MSCI delisting for MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, publicly stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being removed from MSCI indexes was not a significant threat, pushing back against market fears and temporarily stabilizing sentiment.
MSCI clarifies it will retain MicroStrategy in its indexes with limitations
December 31 surges to 56%24%
MSCI announced it would keep MicroStrategy in its flagship indexes but limit new share weighting, alleviating some concerns about delisting and supporting liquidity. This clarification led to a rally in MicroStrategy shares and reduced delisting fears.
Analyst says MSCI delisting not biggest risk for MicroStrategy
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that potential MSCI removal or Bitcoin price drops are not the main risks for MicroStrategy, which helped stabilize market sentiment amid delisting concerns.
Arca CIO Downplays Impact of Potential MSCI Delisting on MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 33%26%
Jeff Dorman, CIO of Arca, argued that a potential future removal from the MSCI index would be marginally bad for the stock but ultimately irrelevant for Bitcoin and the company's core business.
MSCI clarifies it will not exclude digital asset treasury firms including MicroStrategy
December 31 surges to 58%26%
On March 5, 2026, MSCI issued a clarification that digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy will remain included in its indexes, removing a key overhang and leading to a rally in MicroStrategy shares. This official stance confirmed no delisting or transfer had occurred by this date.
JPMorgan warns MicroStrategy faces risk if excluded from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 58%26%
JPMorgan analysts warned on March 5, 2026, that MicroStrategy could face significant valuation pressure and forced selling if MSCI decided to exclude digital asset treasury companies. This report highlighted market concerns but did not confirm any actual delisting or transfer.
Analyst states MSCI delisting risk for MicroStrategy is marginal and not immediate
December 31 surges to 56%24%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the risk of MicroStrategy being dropped from MSCI indexes is marginally bad for the stock and irrelevant for Bitcoin, suggesting no imminent delisting threat, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
Analyst downplays risk of MicroStrategy MSCI delisting amid Bitcoin price rise
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, stated that the biggest risk to MicroStrategy is not MSCI delisting or Bitcoin price drops but the stock price not rising with Bitcoin. This reassured investors and contributed to a modest price increase.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 B outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
JPMorgan released an analysis reiterating that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI could trigger $2.8 billion of forced outflows, renewing market concerns and lifting the “Yes” probability after a brief dip.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 32%9%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, actively lobbied MSCI to avoid exclusion, emphasizing its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, which temporarily stabilized market sentiment.
MSCI clarifies no immediate delisting for digital‑asset firms
December 31 rises to 35%3%
MSCI issued a clarification that its consultation on “digital‑asset treasury” firms would close on Dec 31 2025 and that no immediate delisting would occur, stabilising the market for a brief period.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the significant market impact of potential exclusion due to Bitcoin holdings.
Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over MicroStrategy MSCI index status
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
With no official MSCI removal announcement, market sentiment remained cautious, reflected in fluctuating prices as investors weighed the risk of potential exclusion against MicroStrategy's lobbying efforts.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to retain index inclusion amid Bitcoin volatility concerns
December 31 drops to 27%7%
MicroStrategy's Chairman Michael Saylor engaged directly with MSCI to argue that the company is an operating software business using Bitcoin strategically, aiming to prevent exclusion from MSCI USA and World indexes. This lobbying helped maintain investor confidence temporarily.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid exclusion from indexes
December 31 drops to 27%6%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as distinct from investment funds. This lobbying aimed to preserve passive investment inflows and stabilize market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 dips to 34%1%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, amplifying market concerns and impacting MicroStrategy's stock price.
MSCI imposes constraints on MicroStrategy’s index inclusion despite retaining stock
December 31 drops to 34%7%
MSCI decided to keep MicroStrategy in its indexes but imposed restrictions such as freezing share count adjustments and deferring additions, limiting future passive inflows. This decision maintained MicroStrategy’s index presence but capped potential growth from passive investment flows, sustaining market uncertainty.
MSCI World Index rebalance excludes some U.S. stocks but retains MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 27%29%
MSCI implemented its February 2026 index rebalance, removing 27 firms and adding 18, with a net reduction in U.S. stocks. Despite the reshuffle, MicroStrategy was not expelled from the MSCI World Index, reflecting MSCI's decision to maintain digital asset treasury companies in the index for now.
MSCI World Index rebalance confirms MicroStrategy remains included
December 31 surges to 56%26%
MSCI's quarterly rebalance, effective March 2, 2026, confirmed that MicroStrategy would not be expelled from the MSCI World Index, despite a net reduction in U.S. stocks. This reassured investors and caused a temporary price increase.
MSCI World Index rebalance set for March 2, 2026 – MicroStrategy not slated for removal
December 31 plunges to 41%18%
MSCI announced the upcoming rebalance effective March 2, 2026, which added 18 firms and removed 27, but confirmed MicroStrategy would not be among the deletions. The announcement caused a brief dip in ‘Yes’ as the market priced the upcoming turnover.
MSCI World Index Rebalancing Takes Effect with MicroStrategy Retained
December 31 dips to 32%2%
The quarterly rebalancing of the MSCI World Index took effect at the close of trading, officially confirming that MicroStrategy was retained and no delisting or transfer occurred during this review cycle.
MSCI implements February 2026 Index Review changes with MicroStrategy retained
December 31 drops to 52%12%
MSCI implemented the February 2026 Index Review changes as of February 27, 2026, officially retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI indexes, confirming no removal or transfer occurred during the analysis window.
MSCI World Micro Cap Index adds ACG Metals, no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 rises to 34%1%
On February 27, 2026, MSCI announced additions to its indexes such as ACG Metals to the MSCI World Micro Cap Index, with no indication of MicroStrategy removal or transfer, confirming its continued inclusion ahead of the March 2026 period.
MSCI World Index Rebalance Retains MicroStrategy Despite Portfolio Reshuffle
December 31 surges to 56%23%
MSCI announced a major portfolio reshuffle effective March 2, 2026, removing 27 firms but retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI World Index, including digital asset treasury companies. This decision alleviated immediate delisting fears and supported MicroStrategy's index inclusion probabilities.
MSCI announces major portfolio reshuffle but retains MicroStrategy in indexes
December 31 surges to 58%24%
MSCI announced a significant rebalance of the MSCI World Index effective March 2, 2026, removing 27 firms but explicitly deciding not to expel MicroStrategy and similar digital asset treasury companies. This decision reassured investors and caused a price increase in the December 31 outcome.
MSCI World Index rebalancing excludes MicroStrategy removal
December 31 surges to 84%51%
MSCI executed its quarterly rebalancing for the MSCI World Index, adding and removing several firms but notably retaining MicroStrategy despite its crypto-heavy balance sheet. This reassured investors about MicroStrategy's continued index inclusion at least through March 2026.
MSCI implements February 2026 index changes, MicroStrategy retained
June 30 rises to 15%1%
On February 27, 2026, MSCI implemented its quarterly index rebalancing, which included no removal of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes. This final implementation confirmed the earlier decision to maintain MicroStrategy's inclusion, solidifying market expectations and ending delisting speculation.
MSCI World Index rebalancing effective, MicroStrategy remains included
December 31 dips to 32%1%
The MSCI World Index rebalancing took effect at the close of trading on February 27, 2026, with MicroStrategy retained in the index as per MSCI's earlier announcement, confirming no delisting or transfer occurred during this quarterly review.
MSCI World Index rebalancing maintains MicroStrategy inclusion amid portfolio reshuffle
December 31 rises to 32%2%
MSCI's February 2026 index review included a portfolio reshuffle but retained MicroStrategy in the MSCI World Index, avoiding exclusion and supporting stock stability through March 2026.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 18%46%
MSCI announced it would pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes and undertake a broader review of classification. This decision removed immediate risk of MicroStrategy's removal, causing a sharp drop in delisting probability in prediction markets.
Bitcoin falls below $63,000 amid macroeconomic concerns, pressuring MicroStrategy shares
December 31 dips to 18%1%
Bitcoin's drop below $63,000 amid tariff tensions and geopolitical risks further pressured MicroStrategy's stock, which is highly correlated with Bitcoin's price. This contributed to market uncertainty about MicroStrategy's future in MSCI indexes.
MSCI Spares MicroStrategy from Index Exclusion
December 31 plunges to 27%27%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its global equity indexes during the February 2026 review, retaining MicroStrategy in MSCI indexes.
Bitcoin drops another 8 % as volatility spikes
June 30 drops to 14%13%
A further slump in Bitcoin (≈‑8 %) renewed concerns that high volatility could force MSCI to reconsider, causing the market’s ‘Yes’ probability to dip to low‑20 % levels.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to retain MSCI index inclusion
December 31 rises to 34%4%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, actively lobbied MSCI to avoid exclusion, emphasizing its software business and Bitcoin strategy as integral to its operations, which helped stabilize market confidence temporarily.
MSCI pauses DATCO exclusion, MicroStrategy stays in indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%35%
MSCI announced that it would not proceed with an exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) during its February 2026 review, effectively confirming that MicroStrategy would stay in the indexes for the near term. The confirmation pushed the “Yes” probability down further.
Market reacts to MSCI constraints on MicroStrategy's index inclusion
December 31 plunges to 28%24%
Following MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy but impose constraints on its index inclusion, the market sharply reduced the probability of MicroStrategy remaining in the indexes by December 31 and June 30. This reflected investor concerns about the company's limited future index growth and ongoing risk of eventual removal.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes amid Bitcoin holdings expansion
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, increased lobbying to emphasize its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, aiming to counter MSCI's criteria that could exclude firms with dominant crypto assets, influencing market sentiment positively.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 41%8%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that MSCI removal of MicroStrategy due to its Bitcoin holdings could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, with potential for up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit. This heightened market concerns about liquidity and stock price pressure.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to retain index inclusion amid Bitcoin holdings expansion
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged directly with MSCI to argue against exclusion, emphasizing its software business and strategic Bitcoin use, aiming to preserve passive investment inflows essential for its capital model.
MicroStrategy stock price declines amid Bitcoin volatility and MSCI exclusion fears
December 31 plunges to 53%19%
Following warnings and ongoing MSCI consultation, MicroStrategy's stock price dropped significantly due to Bitcoin price declines and investor concerns over potential index exclusion, reflecting heightened market volatility and risk perception.
MSCI pauses exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 3%73%
MSCI announced a pause on excluding companies with significant crypto holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes to conduct a broader review. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations of MicroStrategy's delisting, causing a plunge in delisting odds.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy's index eligibility due to Bitcoin holdings
December 31 drops to 41%8%
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with dominant digital asset treasuries, including MicroStrategy, due to its large Bitcoin holdings. This raised concerns about potential forced outflows and index removal, impacting market sentiment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the significant market impact of potential exclusion.
Bitcoin crashes $16,000 as IREN joins MSCI USA Index alongside MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 52%7%
While IREN Limited joined the MSCI USA Index, Bitcoin experienced a significant price crash. Despite the crypto market volatility, MSCI's inclusion of crypto-linked firms like MicroStrategy and IREN signaled institutional acceptance, influencing market dynamics.
IREN Joins MSCI USA Index as Second Crypto Firm Alongside MicroStrategy
June 30 rises to 14%3%
IREN Limited was added to the MSCI USA Index, reinforcing MSCI's decision to maintain crypto-linked firms in its benchmarks and further reducing the perceived risk of immediate delisting.
Another crypto firm added to MSCI USA Index amid ongoing debate
December 31 drops to 53%5%
IREN Limited was added to the MSCI USA Index, highlighting ongoing discussions about crypto-heavy companies' place in major stock indices. MicroStrategy had previously pushed back against MSCI's exclusion proposals, calling them discriminatory.
IREN Limited added to MSCI USA Index, expanding crypto-linked stocks in MSCI benchmarks
December 31 rises to 19%1%
IREN Limited, another crypto-related firm, was added to the MSCI USA Index, reflecting the ongoing inclusion of digital asset companies in major indices despite prior MSCI consultations on exclusion. This event highlighted the market's evolving stance on crypto firms' eligibility for traditional equity benchmarks, indirectly supporting MicroStrategy's continued inclusion.
MicroStrategy publicly challenges MSCI's proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy companies
December 31 rises to 61%3%
MicroStrategy pushed back against MSCI's earlier proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies, calling it "discriminatory, arbitrary, and unworkable." This public stance highlighted the company's efforts to maintain its index inclusion and influenced market sentiment during the review period.
Another Crypto Firm Joins MicroStrategy in MSCI Index
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
IREN Limited announced its addition to the MSCI USA Index, signaling continued MSCI inclusion of digital asset treasury companies despite previous proposals to exclude them.
Another crypto firm joins MSCI USA Index alongside MicroStrategy
IREN Limited, a Bitcoin mining company, was added to the MSCI USA Index, indicating MSCI's continued inclusion of crypto-related firms and supporting MicroStrategy's position in the index.
MicroStrategy pushes back against MSCI's proposed exclusion of crypto-heavy firms
On February 13, 2026, MicroStrategy publicly criticized MSCI's earlier proposal to remove digital asset treasury companies with more than 50% crypto assets from indexes, calling it discriminatory and unworkable. This strong pushback contributed to MSCI's decision to retain MicroStrategy in its indexes, influencing market sentiment.
IREN Limited announces addition to MSCI USA Index, joining MicroStrategy
December 31 dips to 52%3%
IREN Limited announced it would be added to the MSCI USA Index on February 27, becoming the second crypto-linked firm in the index after MicroStrategy. This highlighted MSCI's continued acceptance of crypto-related companies, indirectly supporting MicroStrategy's position.
IREN Limited added to MSCI USA Index, highlighting MSCI's stance on crypto firms
June 30 plunges to 15%47%
IREN Limited, another crypto-related firm, was added to the MSCI USA Index on February 27, 2026, signaling MSCI's decision to maintain inclusion of digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy in its indexes despite prior considerations for exclusion.
Market reports confirm MicroStrategy remains in MSCI indexes after February review
June 30 rises to 15%1%
Following the MSCI February 2026 Index Review, market reports confirmed that MicroStrategy was not removed from the MSCI World or USA indexes, reinforcing the official decision and stabilizing investor sentiment.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Retaining MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 33%29%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 quarterly index review, confirming that MicroStrategy would be retained in the MSCI World Index despite a broader portfolio reshuffle.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review results retaining MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 57%11%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, confirming that MicroStrategy would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes, with all changes effective as of February 27, 2026.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor Confirms Stock Remains in MSCI Indexes
June 30 plunges to 10%52%
MicroStrategy's executive chair Michael Saylor confirmed that MSTR stock would remain in MSCI indexes, stating the company is an operating business using Bitcoin strategically.
MSCI Announces Decision to Retain Digital Asset Treasury Companies in Indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%34%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with a proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes during the February 2026 review, retaining MicroStrategy in MSCI indexes.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to maintain index inclusion
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, engaged in lobbying efforts to argue against MSCI's proposal to exclude companies with large Bitcoin holdings, emphasizing its software business and active management of Bitcoin as treasury assets.
MicroStrategy intensifies lobbying efforts to remain in MSCI indexes
December 31 jumps to 49%8%
MicroStrategy's Chairman Michael Saylor actively engaged MSCI to argue the company's software business and Bitcoin strategy justify continued index inclusion, aiming to prevent forced sell-offs and maintain passive investment inflows.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Results
June 30 plunges to 14%48%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, implementing changes to the MSCI Equity Indexes as of February 27, 2026. This included deletions from the MSCI USA Index, affecting MicroStrategy's listing.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 rises to 61%3%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk of $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows if MicroStrategy is excluded from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin holdings, intensifying market concerns and volatility around the company's stock.
MSCI February Index Review Confirms MicroStrategy Retains Index Treatment
December 31 plunges to 55%15%
The official results of the February Index Review confirmed that MSCI abandoned its previously floated proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies, allowing MicroStrategy to retain its index treatment.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 35%27%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, highlighting the financial impact of potential exclusion due to Bitcoin holdings.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled with no removal of MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review on February 10, confirming no removal of MicroStrategy from the MSCI World or MSCI USA indexes. This official communication reinforced MicroStrategy's continued inclusion, impacting market prices positively.
MSCI releases February 2026 Index Review results, retains digital asset treasury companies
December 31 surges to 74%15%
MSCI reversed an earlier proposal to exclude digital asset treasury companies like MicroStrategy from its indexes, maintaining their inclusion based on significant investor feedback. This decision temporarily boosted confidence in MicroStrategy's index status.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review results maintaining MicroStrategy inclusion
December 31 jumps to 64%12%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, deciding to retain Digital Asset Treasury Companies like MicroStrategy in its global equity indexes, reversing earlier exclusion proposals. This official announcement confirmed MicroStrategy's continued inclusion.
MicroStrategy actively lobbies MSCI to avoid index exclusion
Yes plunges to 31%31%
MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, engaged in direct lobbying efforts to persuade MSCI to retain the company in its indexes despite its large Bitcoin holdings. The company argued its software business and Bitcoin strategy differentiate it from investment funds, aiming to preserve passive investment inflows essential for its capital model.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review Confirms MicroStrategy Remains Included
June 30 plunges to 18%44%
MSCI announced the results of its February 2026 Index Review, implementing a portfolio reshuffle but explicitly retaining MicroStrategy in the MSCI World and USA indexes. This decision alleviated immediate delisting fears and caused the probability of a delisting by June 30 to plunge.
MSCI Publishes February Index Review Confirming MicroStrategy Retention
December 31 plunges to 32%30%
MSCI published the results of its February 2026 Index Review, officially confirming that Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) like MicroStrategy would retain their current index treatment.
MSCI publishes February 2026 Index Review results with multiple deletions and additions
December 31 rises to 62%3%
MSCI released the detailed list of securities added and deleted from its indexes, including the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes. This review confirmed the companies affected and set the stage for the February 27 implementation, impacting MicroStrategy's market perception regarding its index status.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's exclusion from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin holdings could trigger forced passive fund outflows estimated at $2.8 billion, amplifying market concerns and volatility around the stock.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review confirms MicroStrategy remains in MSCI indexes
December 31 jumps to 63%11%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review results confirming that MicroStrategy and other Digital Asset Treasury Companies would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes, reversing earlier proposals to exclude them. This announcement alleviated fears of delisting and caused positive market reactions.
MSCI Weighs MicroStrategy Removal Over Sizable Bitcoin Exposure
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Reports highlighted that MSCI was still weighing the long-term index eligibility of MicroStrategy due to its digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets, keeping delisting fears alive.
MSCI pauses planned exclusion of crypto‑heavy firms from its indexes
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI announced it would pause the planned exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies (including MicroStrategy) from its global equity indexes. The pause removed immediate removal risk, causing a sharp drop in market confidence that the company would be delisted, which pushed the “Yes” probability down from 52 % to 41 % over the following week.
JPMorgan flags $2.8 bn outflows if MSCI drops MicroStrategy
June 30 plunges to 27%35%
JPMorgan released a note estimating $2.8 bn of outflows if MicroStrategy were removed from MSCI, reigniting fears and pushing the ‘Yes’ price down sharply in early February.
IREN Limited Joins MSCI USA Index as Crypto Firms Maintain Inclusion
June 30 drops to 11%10%
Following MSCI's decision to retain digital asset treasury companies, other crypto-focused firms like Bitcoin miner IREN Limited successfully joined the MSCI USA Index, reinforcing the sector's index eligibility.
MSCI pauses planned exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI announced a pause on excluding Digital Asset Treasury Companies from its indexes to conduct a broader review, which sharply reduced market expectations of MicroStrategy's delisting and caused a drop in the probability of removal.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI officially paused its proposal to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes. This announcement significantly reduced the perceived risk of delisting, causing the market probability for MicroStrategy's removal to plunge sharply.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review scheduled for February 10
December 31 rises to 54%2%
MSCI announced the upcoming February 2026 Index Review results to be released on February 10, with changes effective February 27. This announcement set market expectations for potential index inclusions or deletions, impacting MicroStrategy's delisting probabilities.
MSCI Pauses Crypto Exclusions, Retaining MicroStrategy in Global Indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%34%
MSCI announced it would not proceed with its proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) from its indexes, choosing instead to pause exclusions and conduct a broader review. This decision caused the probability of MicroStrategy being delisted to plunge.
MSCI announces pause on exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 drops to 41%11%
MSCI officially paused its proposal to exclude companies with significant digital asset holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes. This announcement alleviated fears of imminent delisting and caused a sharp drop in the market's probability of MicroStrategy being removed by March 31, 2026.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review announcement scheduled for February 10
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced that changes to its indexes, including additions and deletions, would be implemented as of February 27, 2026, with the announcement on February 10. Market participants awaited the review results to confirm MicroStrategy's status, influencing market prices during early February.
MSCI Announces February 2026 Index Review Results Will Be Published on February 10
June 30 plunges to 22%40%
MSCI scheduled the announcement of its February 2026 Index Review for February 10, 2026, which would reveal whether MicroStrategy would be excluded under proposed digital asset treasury rules.
MSCI Schedules February 2026 Index Review Announcement
June 30 plunges to 21%41%
MSCI announced that the results of its February quarterly index review would be released on February 10, 2026, with changes taking effect at the close of February 27, 2026.
MSCI consultation on MicroStrategy's index inclusion amid Bitcoin holdings risk
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, including MicroStrategy, raising concerns about potential removal from MSCI World and USA indexes. This initiated market uncertainty and price volatility reflecting the risk of forced outflows.
MSCI reverses proposal to exclude Digital Asset Treasury companies from indexes
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI announced it would maintain inclusion of DATs such as MicroStrategy in its global equity indexes after significant investor feedback, reversing an earlier plan to exclude them. This decision temporarily boosted market confidence in MicroStrategy's index status.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8 billion forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 surges to 72%20%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows, pressuring the stock price. This warning underscored market concerns about the impact of MSCI's potential exclusion decision.
MSCI pauses exclusion of Digital Asset Treasury Companies from indexes
December 31 plunges to 18%58%
MSCI decided to pause any exclusions of Digital Asset Treasury Companies and undertake a broader review of how companies with significant crypto holdings are classified, preserving current index access for firms like MicroStrategy. This announcement caused a sharp drop in the perceived probability of MicroStrategy's delisting.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's removal from MSCI indexes due to its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows. This warning underscored the market impact of MSCI's potential exclusion decision and contributed to price volatility in MicroStrategy shares.
MicroStrategy faces potential MSCI index exclusion risk due to Bitcoin holdings
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MicroStrategy risked removal from MSCI indexes because its Bitcoin holdings dominated its balance sheet, triggering MSCI's review. JPMorgan warned of $2.8 billion in forced passive fund outflows if removal occurred, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
MSCI announces consultation on excluding digital asset treasury companies including MicroStrategy
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
MSCI opened a consultation on excluding companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, including MicroStrategy, from its indexes, raising concerns about potential removal and triggering market speculation about forced outflows and stock price impacts.
JPMorgan warns of potential $2.8 billion outflows if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 plunges to 34%18%
JPMorgan analysts highlighted the risk that MicroStrategy's exclusion from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced selling by passive funds, increasing market volatility and pressuring MicroStrategy's stock price.
MSCI confirms MicroStrategy will remain in MSCI indexes during February 2026 review
MSCI announced that companies with significant digital asset treasuries, including MicroStrategy, would remain in its benchmark indexes during the February 2026 review. This confirmation reassured investors and maintained exposure to firms integrating digital assets, supporting MicroStrategy's index inclusion probabilities.
MSCI February 2026 Index Review retains MicroStrategy
December 31 plunges to 41%17%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review schedule, confirming that the upcoming quarterly rebalance would retain MicroStrategy. The reassurance lifted the Yes‑probability for the December‑31 outcome.
JPMorgan warns of $2.8B forced outflows if MicroStrategy removed from MSCI indexes
December 31 drops to 41%8%
JPMorgan analysts estimated that removal of MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes could trigger $2.8 billion in forced passive fund selling, intensifying market concerns and impacting MSTR stock price.
MSCI announces February 2026 Index Review retaining MicroStrategy in indexes
December 31 jumps to 58%6%
MSCI released its February 2026 Index Review results confirming that Digital Asset Treasury Companies, including MicroStrategy, would remain included in the MSCI World and MSCI USA indexes. This announcement alleviated fears of delisting and caused positive market reactions for MicroStrategy-related securities.
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