Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to anchor trader assessments on low near-term odds of a direct conventional invasion of NATO territory, as Moscow prioritizes consolidating gains there while rebuilding forces depleted by more than three years of attrition. Dutch intelligence assessments from April 2026 highlight that Russia could reconstitute sufficient combat power for limited regional probes against NATO’s eastern flank within roughly a year after fighting in Ukraine subsides, potentially targeting symbolic areas such as Estonia’s Narva region through hybrid tactics or unmarked forces to test alliance cohesion. Recent incidents, including Russian-linked drone incursions over Latvia in May 2026 that prompted NATO jet scrambles, underscore persistent gray-zone pressure and sabotage operations aimed at eroding Western resolve. NATO’s forward deployments and joint exercises in the Baltics, alongside U.S. policy signals under the current administration, remain central variables that could either deter or accelerate escalation depending on perceived alliance unity and the timeline for any Ukraine settlement.