Tesla’s prioritization of its own Robotaxi fleet over retail sales, combined with unresolved regulatory scrutiny, underpins the 76% market-implied odds against a qualifying Cybercab sale at $30,000 or less by year-end. Production began at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026 with capacity exceeding 125,000 units annually, yet every vehicle built so far has entered Tesla’s internal fleet rather than customer channels. Executives stated on the Q3 earnings call they are “trying” to deliver units to buyers before December 31 while noting the vast majority will remain Tesla-owned for transport-as-a-service. An ongoing NHTSA audit of the steering-wheel-free design adds uncertainty around private ownership approvals. Limited late-year sales could still shift sentiment if regulators clear hurdles quickly.