Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain odds of 99.8% for "No," driven by the Powerball jackpot's current modest size of $86 million annuitized for the May 16 drawing, following a rollover after no winner in the May 13 contest. With just six potential additional drawings through May 31—on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays—historical growth patterns show jackpots typically add $20–100 million per rollover at this stage, far short of the $914 million needed to reach $1 billion amid variable ticket sales. The 1-in-292 million odds per drawing make sustained no-winners unlikely without massive hype, which hasn't materialized. Realistic upsets would require an unprecedented streak of rollovers fueled by viral ticket-buying frenzy, though such surges rarely propel prizes this high in under three weeks.