Trader consensus assigns a 94% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 because bilateral security cooperation continues to emphasize sovereignty and joint operations rather than unilateral territorial control. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly stated that U.S. troops are not on the table, while her administration has expanded anti-cartel arrests, extraditions, and domestic enforcement to address shared concerns over narcotics flows. Recent U.S. statements have focused on potential targeted actions against criminal groups, yet no congressional authorization, troop deployments, or operational planning for establishing control over Mexican territory has materialized. Deep economic integration under the USMCA and entrenched diplomatic norms further reinforce the low odds, as any escalation would require broad legislative support that remains absent.