Strong bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico, combined with deep economic integration under the USMCA and sustained joint efforts against fentanyl trafficking, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Early-year rhetoric from the Trump administration regarding potential strikes on cartels prompted diplomatic pushback from President Claudia Sheinbaum, leading instead to expanded Mexican operations along the northern border and U.S. intelligence support for targeted Mexican actions, such as the February operation against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Focus has remained on domestic enforcement and bilateral initiatives rather than unilateral military intervention. An invasion would confront substantial legal, logistical, and political obstacles, though a sudden escalation in cross-border security threats late in the year could still test this outlook.