Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions, with weekly Niño 3.4 values near +2.9°C as of mid-September 2026, driving model consensus for a very strong El Niño peak during October–December. Official outlooks assign over 90% probability to this intensity threshold—commonly termed a “super” event on the Oceanic Niño Index or Relative Niño Index—while noting a 75% chance it could surpass all prior events since 1950. Strong atmosphere-ocean coupling and persistence signals through early 2027 reinforce trader conviction reflected in the 94.1% market-implied odds. Still, final strength hinges on whether anomalies hold above +2.0°C through the peak season, and any unexpected model revisions or rapid weakening could alter resolution.