Valve’s staggered rollout of Dark Carnival in June 2026—with Chapter 1 launching immediately and subsequent chapters following on a roughly two-week cadence—established a precedent for phased narrative content, yet no further acts have appeared since the third chapter concluded in late July. The September client update that restored the event’s carnival-themed main menu banner and shop promotion signals sustained monetization interest months after The International 2026, but Valve has issued only minor patches and no new story or map nodes. With roughly three months remaining until the December 31 cutoff and the studio’s pattern of tying larger drops to major tournaments or fiscal quarters, traders see a modest edge for a second act while acknowledging the risk of another extended quiet period typical of Valve’s update cadence.