Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events. Only five have been instrumentally recorded worldwide since 1900, occurring roughly once every 15–20 years on major subduction-zone megathrusts capable of rupturing hundreds of kilometers. With fewer than five months remaining in 2026 and no M9+ event since the 2011 Tōhoku quake, current USGS and global monitoring data show only typical activity, including recent M7+ events that fall well short of the required energy release and fault dimensions. While tectonic stress accumulation continues in high-risk zones, the short window and absence of precursors make an outlier rupture before year-end highly improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$279,429 Vol.
$279,429 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$279,429 Vol.
$279,429 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events. Only five have been instrumentally recorded worldwide since 1900, occurring roughly once every 15–20 years on major subduction-zone megathrusts capable of rupturing hundreds of kilometers. With fewer than five months remaining in 2026 and no M9+ event since the 2011 Tōhoku quake, current USGS and global monitoring data show only typical activity, including recent M7+ events that fall well short of the required energy release and fault dimensions. While tectonic stress accumulation continues in high-risk zones, the short window and absence of precursors make an outlier rupture before year-end highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$279,429Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events. Only five have been instrumentally recorded worldwide since 1900, occurring roughly once every 15–20 years on major subduction-zone megathrusts capable of rupturing hundreds of kilometers. With fewer than five months remaining in 2026 and no M9+ event since the 2011 Tōhoku quake, current USGS and global monitoring data show only typical activity, including recent M7+ events that fall well short of the required energy release and fault dimensions. While tectonic stress accumulation continues in high-risk zones, the short window and absence of precursors make an outlier rupture before year-end highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$279,429Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events. Only five have been instrumentally recorded worldwide since 1900, occurring roughly once every 15–20 years on major subduction-zone megathrusts capable of rupturing hundreds of kilometers. With fewer than five months remaining in 2026 and no M9+ event since the 2011 Tōhoku quake, current USGS and global monitoring data show only typical activity, including recent M7+ events that fall well short of the required energy release and fault dimensions. While tectonic stress accumulation continues in high-risk zones, the short window and absence of precursors make an outlier rupture before year-end highly improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes