Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb islands in July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, have intensified focus on the long-standing territorial dispute. Iran has administered the islands since seizing them in 1971, using Abu Musa primarily as a Revolutionary Guard base with missile, air defense, and fast-boat capabilities to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims, supported by statements from the GCC and Arab League, while pursuing diplomatic channels such as negotiations or International Court of Justice referral. Speculation persists about potential further military operations or occupation scenarios tied to Strait security, though no change in on-ground administration has occurred. These factors shape trader assessments of timelines for any shift in effective control.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla de Abu Musa ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla de Abu Musa ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$88,419 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
$88,419 Vol.
31 de agosto
$81,751 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb islands in July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, have intensified focus on the long-standing territorial dispute. Iran has administered the islands since seizing them in 1971, using Abu Musa primarily as a Revolutionary Guard base with missile, air defense, and fast-boat capabilities to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims, supported by statements from the GCC and Arab League, while pursuing diplomatic channels such as negotiations or International Court of Justice referral. Speculation persists about potential further military operations or occupation scenarios tied to Strait security, though no change in on-ground administration has occurred. These factors shape trader assessments of timelines for any shift in effective control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volumen
$88,419Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb islands in July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, have intensified focus on the long-standing territorial dispute. Iran has administered the islands since seizing them in 1971, using Abu Musa primarily as a Revolutionary Guard base with missile, air defense, and fast-boat capabilities to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims, supported by statements from the GCC and Arab League, while pursuing diplomatic channels such as negotiations or International Court of Justice referral. Speculation persists about potential further military operations or occupation scenarios tied to Strait security, though no change in on-ground administration has occurred. These factors shape trader assessments of timelines for any shift in effective control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$88,419Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb islands in July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, have intensified focus on the long-standing territorial dispute. Iran has administered the islands since seizing them in 1971, using Abu Musa primarily as a Revolutionary Guard base with missile, air defense, and fast-boat capabilities to influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims, supported by statements from the GCC and Arab League, while pursuing diplomatic channels such as negotiations or International Court of Justice referral. Speculation persists about potential further military operations or occupation scenarios tied to Strait security, though no change in on-ground administration has occurred. These factors shape trader assessments of timelines for any shift in effective control.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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