**Guterres’s second five-year term as UN Secretary-General is scheduled to conclude on December 31, 2026, with the successor selection process already advancing through formal channels.** The UN Security Council has conducted multiple non-binding straw polls in July and August 2026 on eight nominated candidates, none of whom have secured the nine-vote threshold without veto risk, and the General Assembly is expected to act later in the year for a January 1, 2027, handover. No official statements, Security Council actions, or credible diplomatic initiatives indicate any effort to accelerate his departure or prompt an early resignation. Guterres continues to perform standard duties, including public addresses on climate, conflicts, and UN reform, while member states focus on identifying his replacement rather than altering the timeline. The implied probability favoring “No” at 58% reflects trader consensus that the established transition timeline will hold absent unforeseen institutional or geopolitical disruption before year-end.