Anwar Ibrahim remains Malaysia’s prime minister under the unity government formed after the 2022 election, yet his position faces mounting pressure from coalition fractures, including recent defections and friction with key partners. Johor state polls on 11 July and Negeri Sembilan on 1 August function as early leadership tests whose outcomes could erode parliamentary support or prompt calls for a snap national election before the 2028 deadline. Internal tensions within Pakatan Harapan and the broader alliance, combined with opposition positioning by Islamist parties, have fueled speculation over early polls and cabinet stability following the December 2025 reshuffle. Traders monitor these state results and any parliamentary defections as the main near-term catalysts that could alter the timeline for a leadership change.