Recent reporting from Bloomberg and supply chain analysts has driven the 94.5% market-implied odds against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, citing Apple's decision to deprioritize the next-generation headset project and reassign engineers toward lighter AI smart glasses. A 2025 M5 chip refresh addressed immediate performance needs without advancing core hardware like displays or form factor, while credible timelines now point to any true successor arriving no earlier than late 2028. This consensus reflects consistent updates through mid-2026 showing the spatial computing roadmap on hold. Traders note that an unexpected acceleration in development or major component breakthroughs could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current evidence indicates limited probability of such changes.