Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$25,421 Vol.
$25,421 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
99%
Democratic Party
1%
$25,421 Vol.
$25,421 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$15,833 Vol.
99%
Democratic Party
$9,588 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$25,421Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,421Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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