Skip to main content
icon for ¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
Geopolítica·Hutí

¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?

icon for ¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
Geopolítica·Hutí

¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?

$5,248,409 Vol.

22 jun 2026
Polymarket

$5,248,409 Vol.

Polymarket

June 22

$122,285 Vol.

<1%

30 de junio

$1,128,138 Vol.

1%

30 de septiembre

$455,708 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$5,248,409
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$5,248,409
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "30 de septiembre" con 11%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?" ha generado $5.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 16, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?" es "30 de septiembre" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 1%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.