Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with Houthi threats in Yemen, remain the dominant driver of sentiment around potential effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent Iranian statements warning of blocking the chokepoint in response to U.S. actions have elevated shipping risk premiums, with war-risk insurance rates rising sharply and major carriers such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd maintaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per voyage. While these disruptions affect approximately 10–12 percent of global seaborne trade and key energy flows rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz, no full navigational denial has occurred, and traffic volumes have stabilized at reduced levels. Market-implied odds reflect this limited immediate escalation risk ahead of the May 31 resolution window, tempered by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the availability of alternative routing capacity. Traders will continue to monitor U.S.-Iran talks, Houthi operational signals, and any fresh maritime incidents for shifts in consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
¿El estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb efectivamente cerrado por...?
$2,862,606 Vol.
30 abr 2026
31 de mayo
4%
30 de junio
16%
30 de septiembre
20%
$2,862,606 Vol.
31 de mayo
$835,794 Vol.
4%
30 de junio
$38,965 Vol.
16%
30 de septiembre
$5,905 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with Houthi threats in Yemen, remain the dominant driver of sentiment around potential effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent Iranian statements warning of blocking the chokepoint in response to U.S. actions have elevated shipping risk premiums, with war-risk insurance rates rising sharply and major carriers such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd maintaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per voyage. While these disruptions affect approximately 10–12 percent of global seaborne trade and key energy flows rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz, no full navigational denial has occurred, and traffic volumes have stabilized at reduced levels. Market-implied odds reflect this limited immediate escalation risk ahead of the May 31 resolution window, tempered by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the availability of alternative routing capacity. Traders will continue to monitor U.S.-Iran talks, Houthi operational signals, and any fresh maritime incidents for shifts in consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$2,862,606Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with Houthi threats in Yemen, remain the dominant driver of sentiment around potential effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent Iranian statements warning of blocking the chokepoint in response to U.S. actions have elevated shipping risk premiums, with war-risk insurance rates rising sharply and major carriers such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd maintaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per voyage. While these disruptions affect approximately 10–12 percent of global seaborne trade and key energy flows rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz, no full navigational denial has occurred, and traffic volumes have stabilized at reduced levels. Market-implied odds reflect this limited immediate escalation risk ahead of the May 31 resolution window, tempered by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the availability of alternative routing capacity. Traders will continue to monitor U.S.-Iran talks, Houthi operational signals, and any fresh maritime incidents for shifts in consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$2,862,606Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with Houthi threats in Yemen, remain the dominant driver of sentiment around potential effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Recent Iranian statements warning of blocking the chokepoint in response to U.S. actions have elevated shipping risk premiums, with war-risk insurance rates rising sharply and major carriers such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd maintaining reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope that add 10–14 days and roughly $1.2–1.8 million in fuel costs per voyage. While these disruptions affect approximately 10–12 percent of global seaborne trade and key energy flows rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz, no full navigational denial has occurred, and traffic volumes have stabilized at reduced levels. Market-implied odds reflect this limited immediate escalation risk ahead of the May 31 resolution window, tempered by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the availability of alternative routing capacity. Traders will continue to monitor U.S.-Iran talks, Houthi operational signals, and any fresh maritime incidents for shifts in consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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