Recent Focus survey consensus and Banco Central do Brasil projections anchor trader sentiment for Brazil's 2026 IPCA at 5.0-5.2%, positioning the 5.00-5.49% band as the leading outcome with 54.1% implied probability. July 2026 annual inflation eased to 4.44% yet remains above the 3% target amid resilient labor markets and fiscal stimulus risks, while the Copom's fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% in August signals cautious easing without altering upside-skewed inflation expectations. These factors sustain market-implied odds clustered in the mid-5% range, with upcoming data releases and policy statements likely to refine probabilities around the central bank's tolerance band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 54.3%
5,50-5,99% 23.1%
4,50-4,99% 15.3%
4,00-4,49 % 3.0%
$92,987 Vol.
$92,987 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
2%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
2%
4,00-4,49 %
3%
4,50-4,99%
15%
5,00-5,49%
54%
5,50-5,99%
23%
6,00-6,49%
1%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
3%
5,00-5,49% 54.3%
5,50-5,99% 23.1%
4,50-4,99% 15.3%
4,00-4,49 % 3.0%
$92,987 Vol.
$92,987 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
$5,669 Vol.
2%
3,00-3,49%
$5,739 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,142 Vol.
2%
4,00-4,49 %
$13,506 Vol.
3%
4,50-4,99%
$14,908 Vol.
15%
5,00-5,49%
$13,144 Vol.
54%
5,50-5,99%
$9,078 Vol.
23%
6,00-6,49%
$6,438 Vol.
1%
6,50-6,99%
$6,612 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$4,751 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey consensus and Banco Central do Brasil projections anchor trader sentiment for Brazil's 2026 IPCA at 5.0-5.2%, positioning the 5.00-5.49% band as the leading outcome with 54.1% implied probability. July 2026 annual inflation eased to 4.44% yet remains above the 3% target amid resilient labor markets and fiscal stimulus risks, while the Copom's fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% in August signals cautious easing without altering upside-skewed inflation expectations. These factors sustain market-implied odds clustered in the mid-5% range, with upcoming data releases and policy statements likely to refine probabilities around the central bank's tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$92,987Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey consensus and Banco Central do Brasil projections anchor trader sentiment for Brazil's 2026 IPCA at 5.0-5.2%, positioning the 5.00-5.49% band as the leading outcome with 54.1% implied probability. July 2026 annual inflation eased to 4.44% yet remains above the 3% target amid resilient labor markets and fiscal stimulus risks, while the Copom's fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% in August signals cautious easing without altering upside-skewed inflation expectations. These factors sustain market-implied odds clustered in the mid-5% range, with upcoming data releases and policy statements likely to refine probabilities around the central bank's tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$92,987Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Focus survey consensus and Banco Central do Brasil projections anchor trader sentiment for Brazil's 2026 IPCA at 5.0-5.2%, positioning the 5.00-5.49% band as the leading outcome with 54.1% implied probability. July 2026 annual inflation eased to 4.44% yet remains above the 3% target amid resilient labor markets and fiscal stimulus risks, while the Copom's fourth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14.00% in August signals cautious easing without altering upside-skewed inflation expectations. These factors sustain market-implied odds clustered in the mid-5% range, with upcoming data releases and policy statements likely to refine probabilities around the central bank's tolerance band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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