Recent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA forecasts, now clustered near 4.7–4.9 percent after nine consecutive weekly increases in the Central Bank’s Focus survey, underpin the 20.9 percent implied probability on the 5.00–5.49 percent bucket. April 2026 inflation printed at 4.39 percent year-over-year, driven by fuel and services price pressures amid the Iran-related energy shock and a still-resilient labor market. With the Selic rate held at 14.75 percent and the 4.5 percent target ceiling already breached in consensus projections, traders are pricing in limited further easing and persistent inflation inertia through year-end. Key swing factors include the pace of Copom rate cuts and any escalation in global oil prices.