Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 25 runoff, reflecting his first-round victory in the state on October 4 with roughly 48% of the vote against Lula’s 43%. Minas Gerais, long viewed as a bellwether where every president since the 1980s has prevailed, swung decisively toward the PL candidate after he also led nationally in the opening round. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys had shown the two candidates in a technical tie or narrow edge for the senator in second-round simulations, but the actual ballot results shifted momentum clearly in his direction. Lula’s narrower path would require substantial gains in turnout or persuasion among undecided and opposition voters before the runoff, while any late developments such as shifts in key voting blocs or unforeseen events could still alter the final margin in this closely watched state.